EdCone.com

Kay Hagan was waiting in a private room behind a big lobby at the Greensboro Coliseum. The networks, one by one, had declared her the winner of the North Carolina Senate race.

An aide sat at a table with four mobile phones in front of him, and the congratulatory calls kept coming -- from Jim Hunt, Mark Warner, Hillary Clinton, and Chuck Schumer. But Liddy Dole was not calling. Liddy was on TV saying she would not concede.

Finally, at about 9:40, Dole called to concede, and Kay Hagan went out to meet the crowd as North Carolina's Senator-elect.

More pics (click to enlarge): Kay and me; a near-empty Glenwood Recreation Center, one of many sites where early voting thinned the Election Day crowds; and volunteer Georgia Pennix at about 6 PM, 11 hours after she arrived to work outside the GRS. Oh, and I had Brunswick Stew at Stamey's for dinner.

UPDATE: Hagan files suit against Dole and her campaign.

"The advertisement is defamatory because Defendants know, and knew prior to the production, approval, and publication of the advertisement, that it contains both false statements and false implications about Plaintiff...Defendants intended for these statements to be defamatory and for the average person to interpret the advertisement in a derogatory fashion."

The voiceover at the end, in which a woman's voice says "there is no God" while Hagan's face is on the screen, is cited as "egregious..clearly presented to appear to be Plaintiff's [voice]...an intentional attempt by Defendants to deceive the citizens of North Carolina and malign the Plaintiff."

I'm not comfortable with the atheism=unfit-for-office equation implicit in this whole debate, and I'm starting to wonder what the ads would look like if a Jew ran for statewide office.

Dear Liddy: Enough.

From a letter FedExed to Senator Dole and her campaign manager, Marty Ryall: "You have clearly stooped to a level that is not protected speech and has no place in our public discouse."

Garrison v Lousiana -- "calculated falsehood" -- is cited.

I take a very broad view of free speech, but even to the extent the cease and desist letter is a stunt it makes sense to call attention to Dole's descent.

What a sad chapter in Elizabeth Dole's public life. May it be the last one.

UPDATE: Carter Wrenn says, If Kay Hagan does an ad, puts it on TV, looks Elizabeth Dole in the eye and says, Elizabeth, that’s not my voice, I never said that, your ad's false – Dole’s ad backfires.

Here’s a worse scenario: What if Jim Hunt makes that ad? What if former Governor Jim Hunt looks into the camera and says, I’ve known Kay Hagan ten years; she’s an elder in her church and a Sunday school teacher, and Elizabeth Dole, your ad crosses the line of decency and fair play. You owe Kay Hagan an apology.

My guess is the next sound you may hear will be the roof falling in on Liddy Dole.

And Pearce looks at some NC campaign lawsuits.

The descent of Dole (continued): "It's not just to save this seat; we are trying to save the values that we care about in America. We’re trying to save honesty and integrity and hard work and personal responsibility and love of family and love of God. That's what this is all about, and it's a serious time."

OMG Kay Hagan wants your kidz to catch the gay! Also, she hates God!!

Sad to see Liddy Dole's friends at the NC Republican Party trolling the sewer.

Also: Liddy said it was bad for Erskine Bowles to lend his campaign money, but that was then, and this is now.

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has spent $1.4 million on Dole so far, making North Carolina its most expensive state." That can't be good for the GOP on the national level.

Nor can having NC contested so strongly by Obama, who benefits even if he doesn't win the state.

Not sure that the Dole campaign is literally "out of money," and of course dipping into her personal wealth means that she can stay on the air, but goodness, what a difference a year makes.

"Elizabeth Dole has always touted her ability to raise money. She started this campaign with a huge cash advantage over Kay Hagan and she has drained through that with three weeks left to go in the campaign. Three weeks in politics can be a lifetime."

Politico: Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. "There’s no point in even counting the votes," said a top McCain official.

Atrios asks, "Anyone know how Kay Hagan is apparently pulling this off?"

Well, yes. If you feel like clicking the "Chasing Liddy" tag at the bottom of this post, you'll find almost a year's worth of links and posts.

The short version:

--Dole has disappointed North Carolinians, including those of us who disagree with her positions on many issues, who expected her to be a star in the Senate.

--Dole has been an absentee Senator. We all knew it, but recent reports that she spent a total of 33 days in NC over the course of two years in her term resounded like coffin nails.

--Dole is closely identified with Bush.

--The DSCC has pumped a ton of money into NC to get the message out on all of the above, and the ads have been good.

--Hagan, a powerful member of the state senate, got immediate buy-in from party leaders and was able to raise money early.

--Hagan has run a steady campaign, criss-crossing the state in the style of her uncle, Walkin' Lawton Chiles. She's an appealing, centrist Democrat who plays well across North Carolina.

--Dole doesn't seem to be trying very hard. Her public appearances have been limited, and her ads have been lame. National support for her seems desultory, perhaps a result of her leadership role in the disastrous 2006 GOP Senate effort.

--Hagan has Obama's strong ground game, and the tech-smart, energized NCDP behind her (watch party chair Jerry Meek -- he's a star).

A Republican official in NC told me last month he expects Hagan to win, and that other than the loss of a vote in the Senate, he wasn't too upset about it. People in other parts of the country don't necessarily understand that NC is not the Deep South, and that voters here routinely split the ticket. Still, becoming the first Dem to win a Senate seat in a presidential year since Sam Ervin in 1968 would be a big damn deal.

"Private Caller," says the caller ID. It's a robomessage from Freedom's Watch, telling me that Kay Hagan is soft on illegal immigration. Part of a large campaign. Funny that the group's non-profit status, which allows it to discuss issues but not candidates, precludes any mention of Liddy Dole but allows frequent mention of her opponent.

The Hagan campaign says it's raised more than $120K online in the past five days. The polls are strong. And Dole is reeling from reports that she spent a total of just 33 days in North Carolina over two years of her term (the focus of Hagan's online fundraising at the moment).

Now Hagan is battering Dole's record on the Senate Banking committee, pointing to legislation Dole advanced as recently as March of this year that would have loosened regulation of financial firms, and noting large contributions by the financial industry to both Dole and the NRSC under her leadership.

Meanwhile, the NCDP and the Obama campaign seem to have a strong ground game underway. An Obama win here may still be a stretch, but Hagan clearly has a good shot at becoming the first NC Democrat since Sam Ervin in 1968 elected to the Senate in a presidential year.

No word yet on her predictions for last year's Super Bowl: "Sen. Elizabeth Dole came out against President Bush's week-old Wall Street rescue plan on Friday."

I talked recently to a GOP official in NC who said he thought Hagan would win. He lamented the possible loss of a Republican vote in the Senate, but wasn't too upset about it in terms of Liddy's retirement.

Dole just doesn't seem to be trying very hard.

I'd bet the DSCC is teeing up another of those Old Guys Trashing Liddy spots with this report as the script: "Dole spent about two months in the state during her first year in office. Between 2004 and 2006 [...] the records document a total of two months spent in North Carolina. As she geared up for re-election in 2007, she spent 50 days in the state, followed by 97 days so far this year." [emphasis added]

Where's Elizabeth Dole?

Yes, I know she has lived outside North Carolina for the last half-century, but where are her visits?

Robert P notes the lack of an events calendar on Dole's website, and finds only a very few mentions in the press of appearances in the state.

The WSJ article linked earlier today mentions a couple of other visits, and says that Dole skipped the Republican convention to campaign. But if she's criss-crossing North Carolina, she's doing it in stealth mode.

It's a curious strategy.

WSJ says: "Mrs. Dole is in a bruising battle to keep her job, according to recent polls. Her race against Democrat Kay Hagan, a North Carolina state senator, has become one of the more aggressive campaigns of this election, with each side hammering the other in television ads and public statements."

Adding insult to injury: the headline in the print edition calls Liddy Dole "Libby." The online version did for a while, too, but has been corrected.

Protzman says the N&O's Under the Dome blog leans right in its coverage of the Dole-Hagan race.

FWIW, the lead post at the moment: "The N.C. Troopers Association has endorsed Kay Hagan."

UPDATE: Bizzell apologizes for some of his remarks.

"[T]o travel with Bizzell is to understand not only the anger, but also the ambivalence that surrounds an intensifying crackdown on illegal immigrants."

N&O's Kristin Collins rides along with Johnston County Sheriff Steve Bizzell.

Interesting that more than half of NC's sheriffs are endorsing Kay Hagan; it would be interesting, too, to see party-line breakdown of NC sheriffs (here's a list, if anyone wants to take the time to figure it out).

Kay Hagan posts at ElectBlue.

PPP credits the DSCC ad campaign for Hagan's narrow lead over Dole in its latest poll.

The caveat at the end of the post: "Elizabeth Dole has plenty of money and a lot of time to recover but this race has moved itself firmly into the tossup category over the last month, a designation that would have once seemed unthinkable."

Hmm. Any connection between this ("The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee said Friday colleagues have not heeded his calls for contributions to contested races, threatening advertising on behalf of GOP candidates") and the reported lack of follow-through on promised NRSC support for Dole?

The latest DSCC ad points out that Dole votes in near-lockstep with Bush, but I didn't realize she votes with him more often than anyone else from NC.

UPDATE: Counting by a different methodology, Dole votes with the incredibly unpopular president a mere 88% of the time, putting her a point behind Sue Myrick.

PPP likes the new DSCC ad about Dole, wonders if McCrory's ad strategy is sustainable.

Hagan, Johnson (NC10) make the WSJ's list of Democratic challengers to watch in the South. I'd have included Kissell, too.

The accompanying article focuses on a race in Alabama, but some of the same logic applies to NC.

From the Fayetteville Observer:

Rep. [Robin] Hayes comes to Fayetteville annually to meet with defense contractors at their trade show, but since I am not a member of the defense industry, we have yet to meet. It’s difficult to feel truly represented by someone if you’ve never seen him.

Since he’s running for re-election against school teacher Larry Kissell this year, I hope Rep. Hayes will take time to visit Fayetteville and the surrounding area. I know we’re a long way from Concord, but I think he would learn a lot from visiting with his constituents here in the Eighth Congressional District.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican from our state, also is running for re-election this year, facing off against state Sen. Kay Hagan. I also hope Sen. Dole will visit our area and meet with ordinary North Carolinians. Again, I realize we’re a long way from her home in Washington, but since she represents us in the U.S. Senate, I think it would benefit her to attend some of our great community events.

I’ve met both Larry Kissell and Kay Hagan repeatedly here in Fayetteville, whether it was at one of our parks or at one of the events in Festival Park or downtown. I certainly look forward to meeting our incumbent elected officials in Congress at least once before Election Day. All they have to do is show up.

I keep waiting for Dole to add a calendar feature to her website; Hagan has been active across the state.

The DSCC is starting to spend some of the big bucks earmarked to support Hagan. This ad goes straight to the feeling a lot of North Carolinians have about Dole.

Dole first to ditch funds from indicted Senator Stevens; Hagan campaign (in comments at TPM post) says she should give away more.

Liddy Dole's PAC has some high-dollar donors, many of them lobbying groups in DC (found Under the Dome).

UPDATE: Kay Hagan's supporters of similar ilk.

My newspaper column rounds up a few stories, including the unfair exclusion of Mike Munger from the gubernatorial debates and the Hagan campaign's online lag. You can read the whole thing after the jump.

Hagan may be getting some high-dollar help from the national party.

Hagan supports net neutrality. Probably not a big issue to a lot of NC voters, but an important one nonetheless. Glad she's on the right side of it.

Meanwhile, Dole reaches out to small donors, saying she's in a tight race and will "face the fury of a well-funded Democrat attack machine this fall."

Hagan raises $1.6 million in second quarter. She needs it, and a lot more. Dole's early TV ads seem to have been effective.

UPDATE: I'm no expert, but Politico says $1.6 million is "impressive."

Dole announces county coordinators for a statewide campaign.

Judging by the respective websites, Hagan still seems much more active around the state on a grassroots level. I'd like to see her campaign put more emphasis on using the web to build a statewide organization and less effort into blathering about Dole's red slippers. We all know Dole has not been much of a presence in North Carolina -- shouldn't we be hearing more about what Hagan will do differently, and how people can help make that happen?

Cillizza has the Hagan/Dole race up to number 8 on his watch list.

Rasmussen says Kay has some work to do.

Even the robots have noticed that North Carolina has a Senate race on its hands -- Google News has Dole "vulnerable" as its second item for her name (click image to enlarge).

UPDATE: Oops, I hit post before getting to the punchline -- the article cited identifies Dole as "R-Kan."

Kay Hagan seems to have learned something from her uncle, former Florida governor Walkin' Lawton Chiles.

Her campaign touts its "aggressive grassroots efforts" in an email announcing a canvassing effort today in five NC counties, including Cumberland, Guilford, New Hanover, Pitt and Wake.

Field Director Leah Johnson is quoted: "We have set up phone banks several nights a week and Kay's supporters will continue to canvass neighborhoods, hold house parties and meet and greets through November 4th."

The campaign also is holding "family reunions" at which Kay and her family will meet and greet people across the state. The next one is scheduled for June 7 in Asheboro.

The campaign is doing a good job of pushing its message out on the web, although I haven't seen much indpendent, grassroots web activity happening yet.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Dole has launched a TV ad, but I still don't see evidence of an active on-the-ground campaign. With Dole's reputation as an absentee Senator one of her biggest liabilities, this seems a curious strategy. 

A look at some reasons why "Kay Hagan faces a significantly more advantageous political environment than previous Democratic Senate candidates in North Carolina."

Granted, the report is from Anzalone Liszt Research, a firm employed by Hagan (and Larry Kissell), but ALR has been on a hot streak of late.

Politico: "Democratic strategists are now taking a serious look at pouring resources into the Tarheel State in light of state Sen. Kay Hagan’s decisive victory in the Democratic primary and Dole’s weaker-than-expected showing in a series of statewide polls."

At this point, judging by their respective websites, it looks like Hagan is running harder than Dole.

Yet another poll -- this one from the conservative Civitas Institute -- shows Dole and Hagan in a very tight race.

Meanwhile, The Cook Political Report has changed its rating of the NC race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Hagan has a lot of events scheduled across the state; Dole's schedule isn't on her website, but she'll be at the Coca-Cola 600 this weekend, which is a high-visibility venue.

Previously, previously, previously.

Kay Hagan's name is popping up in a lot of blog posts as speculation builds that Dole's seat is in play. Kay needs that interest to turn into support and the support to turn into cash.

Binker ponders the Hagan/Dole matchup and concludes, "we have a race on our hands."

Dole shakes up campaign staff.

Blue NC is unimpressed.

Dole has  a decent campaign site up.

Hagan/Dole is still not on the radar of some big-name analysts, including Cook and Sabato. Does that say more about the optimism of NC Democrats, or about the analysts (Cook has NC "solid republican" but hasn't updated since late March, Sabato's latest Senate update is from December '07)?

Seems that Kay Hagan's people should be very nice to Obama's people.

Cillizza adds NC to his list of competitive Senate races: "Kay Hagan (D) ran a solid primary campaign and gets rave reviews from Democratic operatives who aren't easily impressed. Democrats are also overjoyed with several polls (of varying credibility) that show Hagan running virtually even with Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). That seems a bit ambitious but with Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) promising to contest the Tarheel State and Hagan preparing to run a well funded and active campaign, this race could get interesting."

He's not from around here, so forgive him for calling NC "a conservative state" rather than the more accurate "a complex and changing state that should not be confused with the Deep South as it keeps Democrats running the show in Raleigh and elects a lot of Democrats to Congress but has gone Republican in presidential elections for a generation and Republican in Senate races during presidential years since 1968."

Another poll shows Hagan within striking distance of Dole: "North Carolina’s US Senate race could end up being a lot closer than anyone has expected," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "Hagan is benefiting from the visibility she built up during the primary campaign, and has a chance if she can compete with Dole financially over the next six months."

Everyone knows Dole's name already. If Hagan can raise the bucks, she should be able to build her brand while reminding people of what they don't like about the Bush-Dole era.

McCain leads Obama in the poll, 49-42.

Hagan essentially even with Dole in new Rasmussen poll.

More important than the numbers themselves is the national attention they generate, which Hagan needs in order to raise the big bucks.

Swing State Project has moved NC from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican."

Senate Guru says Kay Hagan is a contender:

Given that Dole is presumably at maximum name ID and that she rarely touches 50% in any approval poll (that isn't commissioned by her campaign or her partisans), she has little room to grow.  On the other hand, Hagan is still expanding her name ID beyond her State Senate district.  And polling indicates that her paid media campaign is incredibly effective.  This won't turn into a Tier 1 race overnight, but every indication is that this is a strong Tier 2 race with much potential.

Hagan's going to need national money to win this thing.

You can watch the Democratic Senatorial candidates debate live on the interwebs tonight at 7.

The Moore and Neal campaigns are touting a new poll from SurveyUSA which shows their guys tied with Perdue and Hagan, respectively, in the gubernatorial and Senate races.

SurveyUSA seems to have a respectable track record, at least in the presidential race.

Meanwhile, Hagan is launching her first TV ad -- important in a contest where name recognition is still at a premium.

UPDATE: More at the Tavern, including links to some skeptics on the new poll (second item; permalinks would be nice).

Betsy Muse has a long, extensively-documented post about inaccuracies and misrepresentations from the Jim Neal campaign.

I've been impressed by Neal, and turned off by the slime-fest in the gubernatorial race, so it's disappointing to see his campaign playing these games.

Looks like the best piece of political reporting in North Carolina today was done by a blogger.

UPDATE: Neal campaign manager Andrew Kain responds at Blue NC. Good on Neal for offer a timely answer at the scene of the original j'accuse. This campaign continues to raise the bar in terms of understanding web culture.

Much of the response itself came across to me as a mishmash of hedges and legalistic depends-on-the-definition-of-is-isms. Politics ain't beanbag, but Neal seemed to promise a campaign that wasn't politics as usual, and even given the non-scandalous nature of most of the original allegations (Hagan changed a debate format from 90 minutes to 60!) he comes off looking a little less pure.

The Kay Hagan campaign "ended the first quarter of 2008 with more than $1 million cash on hand, after having raised $820,000 in the first three months of the year."

Word on the street is that her online fundraising is picking up momentum. That will come in handy in a race that could end up cost 15x what she's got in the bank now.

Positive reviews for Kay Hagan over at Blue NC. "As a Neal fan, I don't want to like Hagan ... but I do. And I didn't want to be impressed tonight. But I am."

It's no surprise to anyone who knows her that Kay is for real.

I've been dogging the Hagan campaign about its slow-baking web effort, and certainly coming off well in one online appearance at the lefty site doesn't fix that weakness by itself.

But if Hagan wins the primary and is then able to leverage a statewide network of online activists, her campaign will get a real boost. Getting a small army of people outside the the formal campaign to help create a 100-county machine could make a difference in November.

Kay Hagan will be online at Blue NC, this afternoon at 5.

PPP: "Hillary Clinton has cut Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina to one point."

More from the latest poll: Richard Moore gained 17 points and now trails Bev Perdue by a 44-34 margin; Kay Hagan leads Jim Neal 22-11 -- the primary winner has a lot of name-recognition work to do by November.