UPDATE II: Berger Jr. finishes with 17% fewer votes than he got in the primary. He does not seem to have worn well with people.
UPDATE Tues PM: Shows what I know --Walker is crushing Berger Jr. in a low-turnout race. So much for the establishment candidate's GOTV chops.
Given Berger Jr.'s association with the GOP powers-that-be in Raleigh, what if anything does this portend for Thom Tillis?
May my prediction below about November prove as accurate as the rest of the piece.
/update
Over at the Style and Cut shop last week an old-school local conservative told me that he plans to vote for Mark Walker instead of Phil Berger Jr. because Berger Jr. is the machine's man and Walker just seems like, well, a better guy.
Not the first time I heard that as the race for the 6th district GOP nomination came down to the wire. Will those things be enough to win the race for Walker? I doubt it. My bet is that Berger Jr. wins tomorrow and goes on to win in November, even if some Walker voters hold a grudge against him. The 6th is just drawn that way -- the party-registration balance has shifted with its new borders, but that didn't slow Howard Coble down in 2012.
There's not much daylight between the two Republicans on the issues (I disagree with both of them strongly and often) so the barbershop logic could create an upset. Even those factors, though, won't necessarily break the insurgent's way.
Walker's anti-establishment vibe taps into the energy that helps propel the Tea Party movement and he appears to have the grassroots momentum, but Berger Jr. has the money and (presumably) GOTV machinery. Berger Jr.'s endorsement from the Beloved Incumbent is offset by Walker's blessing from BJ Barnes. I'd guess the insider/outsider game is a wash.
(Speaking of endorsements, I don't know how seriously John Hammer takes his theory about the N&R's 3-D chess game, but here outside the bubble the stuff Roy Carroll pays to publish sounds...weird.)
Personality can be a wild-card in politics, and the impact is hard to predict. Berger Jr. is not cuddly and his allies even less so, but maybe that's already baked into his profile. Walker has skated on some bad judgement because he's Not A PoliticianTM but if voters think he's down in the mud with Berger Jr., that's trouble.
Add it all up and I see Berger Jr. headed to DC.
May Laura Fjeld prove me wrong.
http://hartzman.blogspot.com/2014/07/walker-bergers-statistical-analysis.html
http://hartzman.blogspot.com/2014/07/election-results.html
Expect it to be noted no where.
Posted by: hartzman | Jul 15, 2014 at 10:02 PM
Congrats to Walker. NCD6 gets a soul.
Posted by: Fec | Jul 15, 2014 at 10:11 PM
It's hard not to play.
Posted by: hartzman | Jul 15, 2014 at 10:47 PM
Good calls by Roch and George. I felt that Walker had a shot, but truly believed the money and structure would carry the day for Berger Jr. I heard over and over last night from well-connected pols that the negativity from Berger over the immigration really backfired on him. Given the strange case of Eric Cantor, I again felt the immigration smear would hurt Walker. In this case it seems that Walker gained strength as the attacks increased and Berger's flaws became more visible as the campaign wore on.
Another interesting thing is the parallels between this race and the 11th District race where an evangelical triumphed over the DA from Burke County back in 2012. As in Berger's case, the DA there had the establishment, the polish and the money but failed to energize voters when it mattered.
I also think some state legislature jockeying is at play here and that Berger Sr. may see a serious challenge in the next election cycle for his state senate seat.
Posted by: Jeffrey Sykes | Jul 16, 2014 at 09:36 AM
This should be a heartening result for those who worry a lot about the power of money and super PACs to "buy elections".
Anecdotal: on election day, the digital billboards on Battleground were 100% Berger Jr. The yard signs on N. Elam were 100% Walker.
Posted by: David Wharton | Jul 16, 2014 at 10:02 AM
Obama brought a new time of campaign to the scene: grassroots and data driven. Others are starting to get it. Some, in their arrogance, inertia and/or lack of inquisitiveness are ignoring opportunities to deploy it at their own peril.
Posted by: Roch | Jul 16, 2014 at 11:57 AM
"type" not time.
Posted by: Roch | Jul 16, 2014 at 11:58 AM
The charter school issue not reported before the Walker Berger election
http://hartzman.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-charter-school-issue-not-reported.html
Posted by: hartzman | Jul 16, 2014 at 12:15 PM