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« Page 432 | Main | Unchanged, not hopeful »

Aug 21, 2009


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CA, while large, is not the whole US market, let alone the total bubble market. In FL the market is dominated by bank-sales and short-sales by people at some point in the foreclosure process (usually sometime after a notice-of-default has been issued). The most toxic mortgages were from 05-07, because of inflated values for sales or refi's. The '05 toxicity is nearly all worked through, and the '06 is well underway. The '07 garbage is starting to be taken out. There are foreclosures from '04 and earlier, but they are less likely because the buyer could affort the price then and there was less exotic financing.

Especially as the job market continues to be weak there will be elevated levels of foreclosures. Numbers of foreclosures will not increase indefinitely, but it is more important to look at the cumulative number of loans-in-default + foreclosed homes and loans-with-up-to-date-payment. The first group is still getting bigger while the second, even with the shift of some from the first to second after reo sales, is still getting smaller.


winstongator Good points! And don't forget all those people who are or soon will be simply walking away from their upside-down mortgages.

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