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« Ben | Main | Professionals »

Jun 26, 2009

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Steve Harrison

I really shouldn't mention this, for fear it will put the kibosh on it, but: My equity-heavy 401k appears to have recovered about 1/4 of the value it lost in the last twelve months or so.

Beelzebubba

steve: a clever person as yourself(straw man munching on a red herring) should see the tail wagging the dog in this rally. July will be the first month when the large first wave of unemployed will be without checks. Conservative estimates say this number will be 3 million by September. This will build on itself in the coming weeks. The remnants of the safety nets installed in the last several months will be in shreds. Banks are using this rally to pay back TARP funds. GM is using their windfall to buy Delphi. The government paid secured creditors 28 cents on the dollar while unsecured union workers were paid 50 cents on the dollar(GM). All the government's deals will scare the bejeezus of any willing creditor to position themselves with the senior debt in any unionized business. The ripple effects will be magnified by these and other policies. FDR destroyed millions in crops and livestock to attempt to control prices while millions were hungry. Current plans are to destroy homes while millions are homeless. This magical thinking should cause more dissonance than it does. I'm happy for your recovery, but this ripple that looks like a rally is identifiable only by the shoeless, nonbathing natives. I hope everyone wins everything back.

Steve Harrison

Beelz, by the end of this year the Dow will be snuggling up to 11,000. Get on the bus now or you will be left behind.

Another word of advice: don't listen to a single word I say about the stock market. I'm looking back and forth between my ass and a hole in the ground, and I'm just not seeing much of a difference there. :)

Beelzebubba

steve: i started using two mirrors to look at my ass and now i can see myself coming and going. My solstice reading assignment, The Myth of the Rational Market by Justin Fox explains how the myth of Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH) was peddled to the masses and those behind the implosion. I'm on the bus now, but i'm duct taped to the front bumper going the other way.

RecycleBill

Buy scrap metals from your local scrap metal dealer and hide it in your basement.

Here's a tip for you. One of my largest competitors is currently buying and stockpiling scrap steel at prices that are above market prices-- even higher than the prices offered by the biggest brokers and steel mills.

And when the prices go up $50 a ton he'll make millions.

Beelzebubba

ReBill: DH is hoarding metal. My gold broker and the inflationsists are hoarding gold. Buffet hoarded stocks at his comfortable default ratio of a 50% correction. Deflationists are hoarding cash. I'm hoarding dried food, ammo and catalytic converters. How bout you?

RecycleBill

Beelze, I'm hording some of the same things you're hoarding along with my own small stock of copper and 5 gallon buckets of pennies. Got about 10,000 rounds of ammo and I'm almost finished making my first mortar though I'll probably only use it to shoot popcorn balls. (I considered dried rice balls but dried rice kills birds.)

I'm hoarding red wigglers and night crawlers too. We always save vegetable seeds for the next 2-3 years plantings.

Yes, I realize pennies contain very little copper these days but it's still costing almost 2 cents to mint 1 cent-- that can't continue forever as the quarter cent and the half cent were both phased out because of excessive minting costs.

Besides, if I'm wrong about the pennies I'll still have a penny no matter what it's worth.

When you get ready to sell those catalytic converters please give me a call so I can attempt to buy them.

Oh, and I've added hens to my flock while helping the neighbors start flocks of their own. I even used my tiller to help the neighbors plant their own gardens. Pretty soon all of East Greensboro will again be productive farm land and with any luck I'll own the feed and seed store.

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