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« Debatable | Main | Not enough lawyers? »

Feb 27, 2008


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"Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines..."

-- Robert Toll

Ed Cone

At least Toll -- the CEO of a big homebuilder reporting a big loss -- is now admitting that "concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures" are involved in the equation -- in other words, that there are reasons people are talking about a bum housing economy.

Early on, he was happy to blame the lenders, "instead of blaming his own company for incorrectly predicting the market and over expanding so much that the company is now in trouble."


As usual, Ed ignores the essence of what Toll says, in order to prop up another of his favorite talking points.


Ed Cone

If by "ignores the essence of what Toll says" you mean "quoted what he says, and put it in context," that is entirely correct.


Extremely lax mortgages, and the direction of home prices, artifically increased demand. Expecting demand, and at the price levels of 1-2 years ago is ridicuously optimistic.

The article can say " The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is up 32% over the past three months, while the overall market has been slightly negative." But can ignore YTD performance is down 50% while YTD the dow is roughly even.


".....quoted what he says, and put it in context..."

Even for you, the arrogance of that answer is just astounding.

Gedeon Maheux

"Even for you, the arrogance of that answer is just astounding."

Seemed perfectly reasonable and logical to me.

I know, I know. Bark bark, woof woof.

Ed Cone

A guy in the business of selling homes wants people to buy more homes, yet even he acknowledges that potential buyers face the reality of "concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures."

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

More here.

Bernanke seems to agree with Toll, by the way, that regulation of the mortgage market was insufficient.

The Fed chair also said today: "The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable since the time of our July report."

I think he was going to add "but everyone should stop talking about it because that's so, like, negative, and keeps people from buying houses from Toll Brothers," but he ran out of time.

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