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Nov 27, 2007

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Dave Ribar

Ed:

It's really hard to buy into a forecast that indicates that Greensboro and Charlotte are more exposed to the housing crunch than places like metro Washington, DC or as exposed as San Diego. Unfortunately, there aren't any details of exactly what went into the forecast.

Also, it would be helpful to report that the "revised" forecast from Global Insight still shows Greensboro growing faster than the rest of the country (2.1% growth versus 1.9% growth).

Ed Cone

GSO growth rate has looked pretty good against much of the nation, so it didn't seem like headline news that we would continue to do so given our positioning on this chart.

Not sure about those comparison numbers or the inputs -- I've contacted Global Insight for more info.

Dave Ribar

Ed:

I wasn't suggesting that the 2.1 percent projected growth figure (for whatever it's worth) be the headline, just that it be included for context.

The dire consequences predicted by the Conference of Mayors for "your government" really apply to the metro areas with substantially slower growth.

As an aside, governments are ALWAYS choosing between raising taxes and cutting services; they just get to disguise things better when property values and incomes are rapidly growing.

Bubba

"As an aside, governments are ALWAYS choosing between raising taxes and cutting services; they just get to disguise things better when property values and incomes are rapidly growing."

That's very appropriate to Greensboro and Guilford County.

It seems that the former always gets the nod, and the latter gets the adjective "essential" tacked on, so that we can all feel bad for even considering cutting "services" which end up being the equivalent of earmarks for certain parties.

Ed Cone

From Dave Iaia, Senior Principal, US Regional, Global Insight: "The report is not quantifying the entire effects of the housing decline over the last few years (which certainly have been quite large in places like San Diego). Instead, the report is only dealing with the additional impacts of the recent credit crunch."

I have reiterated my query on methodology and inputs.

Dave Ribar

Ed:

Thanks for following up with them. It's still hard to believe that the hot markets on the West and East coasts aren't still more vulnerable going forward. I was surprised that Global Insight didn't at least provide some brief description of its methodology (especially since its report got trumpeted across several news sources). The thing to look at is what the forcing variables are in the forecast (percent of sub-prime loans? dependence of the local economy on construction activity?).

clarence swinney

SWINNEY FACT CHECK on Zoom Economy-

1. GDP--very high growth.
Consumer spending is 70% of the total. Debt for that spending all time record. By Far. National Saving negative first time since Repub Great Depression. Govt spent 3,000B of money borrowed from foreigners to aid the spending.

2. Debt as % of National Income--In 2000 it was 80% and in 2005 it was 110%.

Also, check number 6 or Money Supply. Federal Reserve increasing money supply. Awesome.

This not a healthy economic growth. Except for ULTRA-RICH.

2. DOW--Clinton hit record 11,720 in 2000. Bush is less than 2,000 above that record. Bush has passed a 1,000 mark twice. Clinton 8.
Clinton increase to his top was 8,200 billion. That was big.

The S&P plus One-half Dow stocks are just now back to 2000 level.

Let us look at TOTAL STOCK MARKET not 30 stocks.

Per Year Increase
Clinton-41%
Bush I-21%
Reagan-17%
Carter-5%
Bush II-4% this is a zoom? Six years.

3. Nasdaq. Clinton record 5000 in 2000. Bush record is to cut it in half--ZOOM down is not good.

4. JOBS--Oh! How we practice to deceive say Conservatives. They tried using Reagan record as from 1983 to 1989. Six years. Omit two years? Come on! Integrity shall never meet me.
They are trying the same deception with Bush. Omit 2001 and 2002.

BUSH NET JOB INCREASE--70,000 per month over 6 years(less one month) This the Big Big ZOOM? He brags on this. Crazy or dumb?
BLS.Gov—Non Farm Jobs-
1-01-132.129 million
1-05-132.574
1-07-137.758
First two years gain 445,000. WOW! ZOOM ON
Better than Reagan. He had net loss of over 5 million in first two years.
Reagan-175,000 per month over 8 years.
Carter-218,000 per month over 4 years.
Clinton-237,000 per month over 8 years.

5.HOUSING--Low Interest RTates did the boom. Big Money Boom by Fed. Tax Cuts had little effect. Bush big time Moogumboo.
Foreclosures ahead! Big Time. Watch this Zoom. Straight Down.

The number of years of average income to buy a new home at average prices.SHOCKING
Check this closely.

1950-2.5 years
1960-2.4 years
1970-2.5 years
1980-3.5 years
1990-4.3 years
2000-3.2 years
2006-5.4 years---this is a Zoom. Wrong direction.

A 68% Increase in six years is not a good ZOOM.

Wages have been too slow or prices too high or a combination.
Baby Boomers will create a genuine mess in our budgets.

Taking bets on Foreclosures. 5 million or 10 million over next five years.

6. MONEY SUPPLY
Bush Sr. claimed Greenspan policies cost him a re-election.

Increases “per year” average in Money supply-In Billions.
Reagan-239---Bush I—56---Clinton—380---Bush II –760 (5 years)

Bush Sr. was correct. Greenspan did not attempt to stimulate the economy for him.

M-1 + M-1 Increase per decade.
1980 Decade-88%--1990 Decade—48%--2000(5 months) 55%
Monthly Average Increase in Decades—1980’s—120B per month—1990’s 64B per month—2006 (5 years + 4 months)-400 B.
Federal Reserve.gov 6-26-07
120-64-(400 in one half a decade is obvious favoritism).
If they continue that trend it will be 120-64-700.
It is obvious the Federal Reserve favored Bush II.

He opened the Printing Presses full time for Jr.
He shafted Clinton with 6.5% interest rate and gave Bush II a 1% rate.

The Fed was so embarrassed by the high increase in Money supply for Bush II that they stopped showing Total Money Supply (M-3) on Monthly/Quarterly Reports.

Lack of Integrity has permeated the Military and many Federal Agencies through President Cheney/Rove/Goering

The White House as set a pattern of it-- It is OK to lie and to hide information--“It is Ok to Lie just keep repeating until it becomes Truth”.

6. SPENDING—Bush inherited spending at 18.5% of GDP and in first term took it to 20.3%. Eight years=disaster. Watch Conservatives try to remove one-half the budget by using Discretionary only. A President is responsible for ALL spending.

Do not let them Goering you with IRAQ the spending problem.
Last two years we spent over 5000 Billion in total. 500B in four years on Iraq. They will try to Goering us.

7. CORPORATE PROFITS
Yes! Zoom Level. Buy overseas at $.50 per hour labor and sell to us as tho it is $10.00 per hour labor. Big productivity gains—low pay gains.
Oh! How Fortune 500 play mathematical games! Import and sell as though made with US labor so productivity show great gains. Show me the productivity gains in US Plants. Ho. Hum.

Whoever is President during 2010-2020 will be in deep doodoo.
Since 1980 this nation's economy has been turned upside down.

From WWII to 1980 all Income-Wealth quintiles increased almost evenly percentage wise.

Since 1980 it has been rush to top with bottom 75% stagnated.

In the 1980 decade the top 1% took 70% of total national income growth.

clarence swinney 3-07
political research historian of Reagan-Clinton-Bush II administration since 1991.
president-Lifeaholics of America
clarenceswinney@bellsouth.net


mick

Ahh, the Nazi Ref. Snooze.

Dave Ribar

Wow, I thought that Jay Silverheels had passed away.

Apparently the Bush administration has robbed Mr. Swinney of nearly all of his articles.

John

Besides missing the first mortgage payment that leads to the foreclosure process, the most important event during foreclosure is the sheriff sale of the property. This is the event that will effectively transfer ownership of the house from the current owners to whomever wins the auction (usually the foreclosing bank). Many homeowners are able to postpone a sheriff sale if they are working on an option to save the home, but stopping the auction numerous times may be more difficult. The homeowners, though, should take every opportunity to gain more time, even if they have realistic chance to prevent the foreclosure from taking their homes.
http://www.thejohnbeck.tv

Aron

The foreclosure crisis had profound economic effects in 2008. As a result, new residential investment will be weaker, lowering spending and income across the construction industries, and consumer spending is curtailed as homeowners respond to decreased home equity wealth.

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