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« Man bites dog | Main | Crystal balling »

Oct 09, 2007

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Roch101

Well, that was interesting. A few surprises to mull over.

Tony Wilkins

Roch, biggest surprise of the night Joe Wilson?
And did the LTE put Bill Knight over the top?
(I know you like Sandy but as I said at Guarino's):
Congrats to Trudy Wade. The USS Mitch Johnson sank and Sandy is clinging to a raft with a hole in it.

ben holder

http://thetroublemaker.blogspot.com/2007/10/first-unofficial-convergesouth-dinner.html

Roch101

Tony,

I live in District 3 and honestly, wasn't too suprised by Joe's finish. Yes, a surprise to conventional wisdom, but disctrict 3 isn't quite as monolithic as people sometimes think (it's not all old or new Irving Park, hey, I live here.). When I failed to see Hayworth successfully drawing clear enough distinctions between herself and Zac Matheny, I began to semll an opportunity for Joe. Congrats, to Joe. Now he has a mountain to climb.

Rakestraw and Wade were surpises. I expected each to do well, but was surprised that each led their respective races. In retrospect, maybe I should have seen it coming. I think there is a lot of dissatisfaction with the status quo and my take is that those people couldn't wait to vote. Could those voters be dilluted in the general election when larger numbers of more content people go to the polls? Perhaps. In my opinion, a huge factor will be the mayoral race. It could make the dynamics of the general election very different from the primary.

My "like" of Sandy Carmany is not blind support (I don't live in her district anyway, so it's kind of moot.) I have dissagreed strenuously with her on some important issues. What I do like is her superb dedication to the job, she treats it, well, like a job. Her dedication to engaging the public on issues through her blog is admirable too. All other things being equal, a candidate who is willing to explain herself, answer questions and engage publicly is superior to one who is innaccessible to the average Joe.

My personal dissapointment was Joel Landau's 110 vote deficit to keep him out of the top six. It's one of those losses that will have the candidate and his supporters thinking, "Just a few more yard signs, just a few more doors." But Joel and I met before the campaign and one thing he impressed upon me was how busy his days are. If you're busy your busy, but a little extra effort before the election would have made the difference. Staying up an extra half hour a night to write a blog, a couple extra Satruday afternoons knocking on doors -- that's all it would have required.

I thought Joe Venable, Donna Reichmann and Greg Woodard would have done better too. Don't know why they didn't, just thought they would.

The second tier of at-large candidates, Green, Knight and Abuzuaiter obviously have a challenge ahead. I can't see Anderson-Groat not finishing in the top three and, unless Rakestraw's primary support reflects the totality of her poplularity (a possibility, I suppose) that leaves the second tier of at-large candidates looking to knock off well-known and well-funded Robbie Perkins -- sounds unlikey, doesn't it?

Still, more attention will be paid now and either of the three could get some momentum going. Here's how each wins:

Green: Be who he is, only more prominently. Count on Perkins to turn out his consituency in a big way and for those voters to see Green as similar to Perkins and worthy of one of their votes too.

Knight: Focus and magnify his early image as a thinking and responsible outsider, but don't get too far out in left field (or right field). Look for votes from Rakestraw supporters, but understand that the desire for change is not partisan.

Abuzuaiter: Female, business person, most likely to share support with Anderson-Groat. Greeensboro likes women on city council. Emphasize her gender specific (and easier to remember) first name: Marikay. (I know that's superficial in a sense, but I'm calling it like I see it.) Redesign yard signs.

Huge bonus points: Of the three above, the candidate who campaigns hard for and gets votes from minority districts, which I suspect will be a greater factor with the mayoral race on the ballot in the general election, greatly improves his or her chances.

Bubba

"......the candidate who campaigns hard for and gets votes from minority districts, which I suspect will be a greater factor with the mayoral race on the ballot in the general election, greatly improves his or her chances."

You are leaving out the absolutely most important factor for any of the candidates to consider.

Given the historically low turnout in the municipal general election, where does the greatest opportunity lie for those who do not have the business as usual gift horses to fund them?

Roch101

Good catch, Bubba.

Candidates who don't have a blog, start one. Today. (And if you have one, use it.)

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