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« State of the City | Main | TeeVee »

May 11, 2007

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Bubba

While obviously overstated in numbers, it's still a matter of concern.

Noteworthy:

"'It’s creeping into the U.S.,' said Dr. William Levis, head of the New York Hansen’s Disease Clinic. 'This is a real phenomenon. It’s a public health threat. New York is endemic now, and nobody’s noticed.'

Tracking leprosy among immigrants can be difficult, but leprosy is already endemic in Texas, and numbers are rising in New York and California--all states with high immigrant populations. Dr. Levis said he believes America could be on the brink of an epidemic similar to those that swept Brazil and led to the country becoming a global leprosy hotspot.

'We just don’t know when these epidemics are going to occur,” he said. “But we’re on the cusp of it here, because we’re starting to see endemic cases that we didn’t see 25 years ago.'"

Roch101

From the US Dept. of Health and Human Services:

New cases of Leprosy in the US, 2005: 166
New cases of Leprosay in the US, 1995: 165

Ged

I'd say that about sums it up Roch. Another non-story being pushed into the lime light by certain right-wing factions.

Connie Mack Jr

From the Roman SPOR Dept. of Health and Human Services, Library of Alexander

New cases of Leprosy in the Kingdom of Judah, 1 AD: 166,666

New cases of Leprosay in the Kingdom of Judah, 33 AD: 0



Various Establishment Religious sources in Judah claim this amazing reduction was due to a Prophet who claim to be the son of God.

Other Roman military civil government sources said this non-story was being pushed into the lime light by certain right-wing religious liberation factions and was expected to be a major media event during the Pastover religious season.

Bubba

"New cases of Leprosy in the US, 2005: 166
New cases of Leprosay in the US, 1995: 165"

And you think that settles it, don't you.

Another quote from the article i linked above:

"The problem, researchers say, is that leprosy isn’t easy to diagnose, especially for doctors with no previous experience of the disease. American doctors often mistake it for other conditions like eczema or diabetes; and one recent study found that the average patient shows symptoms of leprosy for over two years before receiving an accurate diagnosis."

Ya think that maybe, just maybe, the HHS numbers just MIGHT be wrong, Roch?

Once again, look beyond the end of your nose, and THINK about the possibilities that the numbers are horribly under reported..... like the stats for incidents of rape, and other socially undesirable experiences?

Oh no, there's no precedence for something like that happening, is there?

Bubba

....and then we have THIS gem of a comment:

"I'd say that about sums it up Roch. Another non-story being pushed into the lime light by certain right-wing factions.'

Laughable, but expected.

Roch101

Bubba,

I provided documented and sourced information. You wish to suplant that with supposition for which you offer no evidence other than fanciful speculation. The facts collide with your ideology in this case.

If you have an authoritative source that offers facts to refute those provided, offer it up. As it stands, you are attempting to advance a position that requires the substitution of rhetoric and fantasy in place of knowledge.

Connie Mack Jr

"The problem, researchers say, is that leprosy isn’t easy to diagnose, * Doctor Bubba

Okay Doctor Bubba! Define the medical term " leprosy" and no cheating by watching " The Robe" or reading the bible. Bubba! Why did leprosy colonies hid in caves in ancient times? Bubba have you and your Republican faith base friends consider healing leprosy by having Pat Robinson nuke leprosy colonies?

Ged

It never ceases to amaze me how solid facts are never good enough for some people. When ideology is involved, facts can somehow be ignored or twisted to suit beliefs. Roch reports on the *actual* cases of Hansen's Disease each year from the department of our government that keeps track of these statistics, but this isn't enough.

Why? Simply because it undercuts the right's case that allowing illegals into this country means they don't actually help to spread disease. I agree that we need to get control of the borders and that people should not be allowed to enter illegally, but to deny the facts and insist that their is an epidemic of Leprosy when there simply isn't, is ignorant.

Bubba

1. The article i linked to was from the Columbia School of Journalism, noted for being one of, if not THE best journalism schools in the land.

Do you think they publish inaccurate stories that are not fact checked?

Maybe they just made it all up to support the fantasies of the Rocket Scientists who are always quick to point the finger at "right wingers".

2. You want to stand on a set of "facts" published by HHS?

Do you not understand WHY the "facts" you quote are probably not accurate?

3. As far as your partner in this debate, I'll leave him/her/it to wallow in the stupidity trap that he/she/it is obviously occupying.

Bubba

One more thing I did not mention:

The study cited in the link was from an actual Columbia University project.


Yet you think it's all "supposition", and "speculation".

Ed Cone

Dobbs is a fearmongering blowhard with no credibility on this issue.

At the same time, some apparently serious people are concerned that the issue Dobbs so grossly overstates is an actual (if much, much smaller) problem.

Dobbs has made it more difficult to discuss the real problem. The logical response is to rebuke and then ignore Dobbs on the subject, and then consider the facts.

Bubba
Ged

There is nothing in the post from Columbia that conflicts with Roch's Hansen stats at all. Cases in the US have remained steady. I find this portion from the article telling:

"Not all experts are so worried about an impending epidemic. Dr. Denis Daumerie, head of the World Health Organization’s leprosy elimination program, said fears that immigrants might lead to a resurgence of leprosy in the US were a little overblown. “There is no risk of an epidemic of leprosy,” he said. “There’s absolutely no risk that the few immigrants who are affected by the disease, if they are diagnosed and treated, will spread the disease in the US.”

So basically the threat is overblown and being dumped on immigrants to serve the purpose of fear mongering. Just as I had suggested. I stand correct.

Connie Mack Jr

Dobbs is a fearmongering blowhard with no credibility on this issue.*Ed

Correct Ed! On leprosy in the 60 minutes interview, he got nailed to the cross big time and than went into deep denial. The only diffenence between him and Bill O'Reilly is that he would shoot folks first and ask questions later with his police state mentality, where O'Reilly would call homeland defense as a male stripper saying he had been assaulted by a bunch of drunk Mexicans. They are both the Jackbooted fascist thugs of the conservative right wing republican mean media machine.

Roch101

"Do you think they publish inaccurate stories that are not fact checked?" -- Bubba

Stay with me on this, Bubba. What facts are you pointing to? You quoted people's speculation and concerns, but what data do you wish us to look at that refutes the fact that there are no more new Leprosy cases in 2005 than there were ten years prior?

You don't offer any data, just the possibility that some cases may go undiagnosed. Sure, that's likely. But unless you have some evidence that more cases are going undiagnosed now than did ten years ago, you still haven't offered any data that suggests that new cases of Leprosy are nearing an epidemic (in fact, go back twenty years and the data shows new Leprosy cases at rates more than three times higher than current rates). The government data could be incomplete, but speculating that it is is not convincing. Show me some data from another reputable source that contradicts the available data and you will begin to substantiate your currently unfounded assertions.

"Maybe they just made it all up to support the fantasies of the Rocket Scientists who are always quick to point the finger at "right wingers". -- Bubba

I've said it before, I'll say it again, anti-intellectualism--framing issues as ideology versus science is an appeal to ignorance. Ignorance wins sometimes, but I'd rather have the facts on my side, reason usually wins.

"The study cited in the link was from an actual Columbia University project." -- Bubba

Yeah, but remember, you can't trust the intellectual elites. Seriously though, the only study mentioned in the article you linked to is identified only as "one recent study" and it is cited in your article merely to note that it sometimes takes up to two years to accurately diagnose Leprosy. How does that support your assertion that leprosy is nearing an epidemic because of illegal immigration? Is it taking longer to diagnose Leprosy now than it did ten years ago?

Bubba

(sigh)

Pay attention, Roch.

Undiagnosed and unreported equal much higher numbers than what HHS reports.

If you don't believe that, go argue with Columbia University, the New York Times, and Bellvue Hospital's Hansen Disease Clinic.

Were they wrong? Did they not fact check the stories?

Unless you have facts that prove the information wrong, you have no case to argue. So far, you have failed to do so.

Period.

I don't recall talking about ideology, except to refer to Columbia and NYT in jest as Right Wing.

I don't recall coming to any sort of conclusion about the political, social, and economic impact of the information provided.

Your little tag team partner was the one who framed it in those terms, and you fell right in line. I only laughed at his ludicrous and unsubstantiated knee jerk generalization.

Both of you need to do MUCH better if you intend to make any sort of point here.

Ged

I'm paying perfect attention. Roch, Ed and the rest are too except for one. The point being made here is that the 7,000 new cases of Hansen's Disease reported by Dobbs is utter and complete fiction.

That's the point. Nothing more, nothing less.

There is no solid, factual data to support any other supposition. If there is, please, someone link to it.

Anyone. Please. No? Then the discussion is over.

Connie Mack Jr

"Do you think they publish inaccurate stories that are not fact checked?" -- Bubba

Yep Bubba! Just like all of those facts about WMD's existing in Iraq by your President and his neo-con buddies before we invaded. And don't give us your neo-con republican suck up media control buddy Sean Hannity excuse that the Mayflower-Halliburton moving company move them in the middle of night to God knows where?

Bubba

"Then the discussion is over."

Heer's a clue, friend:

As far as your involvement, it never got started

Dave Dobson

Bubba -

When Roch cites this:
"New cases of Leprosy in the US, 2005: 166
New cases of Leprosy in the US, 1995: 165"

you want us to accept that the rate of diagnosis now is far worse now than it was 10 years ago. Why would that be the case?

When you cite this:
"900 recorded cases in the United States 40 years ago, today more than 7,000..."
you want us to assume diagnosis now is the same back as back then (and you ignore population growth and increased access to medical care - the population has nearly doubled over the last 40-50 years).

If you're talking about recorded cases, the trend for nearly every disease is for far more recorded cases now than in the past, even when studied as a percentage of the population. The fact that nobody was diagnosed with ADD in 1940, and there are tons of cases now, doesn't mean that it's an epidemic - it means that we recognize it now (perhaps too often).

Ged

"Heer's a clue, friend:

As far as your involvement, it never got started"

Last time we chatted here on Ed's blog I gave you the benefit of the doubt and a wide birth. I was courteous because I figured you might just had a bad day. Now I know that isn't the case and you must be an asshat every day of the week.

I'm not your friend, so don't call me one. Please DO try and keep up though, your lagging far, FAR behind in the discussion. From what I read here on other threads, this seems to be the norm.

The undisputed fact of this thread seems to have eluded you so I'll state it once more so you can try and understand it. It's the last time, I have better things to do than to spoon feed you the facts of the situation over and over again:

The statistics of the Dobbs CNN broadcast were based on a false claim from Madeline Cosman (a Ph.D. in English and comparative literature, not an MD) derived from her misinterpreting a February 18th 2003 NY Times article. What were those statistics? That in the past *30 years* over 7,000 cases were reported. She reported that stat to be 7,000 cases in the past THREE years.

All this adds up to the fact that Lou Dobbs needs to issue an on-air retraction of his claim and I would think an apology to Sthal. The claims that there is an epidemic ready to explode due to illegals bringing the disease into the country is simply unsupported by the facts. Diagnosis and treatment is better today than at any point in the past and any drum pounding to make this seem like anything more than a molehill is driven by agenda.

Bubba

"I'm not your friend, so don't call me one."

Fine with me, little buddy.

anything else before I put you in "Irrelevant"?

Bubba

"The fact that nobody was diagnosed with ADD in 1940, and there are tons of cases now, doesn't mean that it's an epidemic - it means that we recognize it now (perhaps too often)."

The HHS figures provided by Roch are statistics only, and are not necessarily correct, for the reasons stated. It's very similar to the modeling exercises used to support "anthropogenic global warming".

I'm not "assuming" anything here, unlike what my little buddy above has done. Except for the indirect comment in the first line of my first post on this thread, I have not even mentioned Lou Dobbs. I've provided information from different sources which lends some substance to the basis for this subject being a matter for concern.

If you think that information is bogus, not credible, or incorrect, address your concerns to Columbia University, The New York Times, and Bellvue Hospital.

Jim Caserta

Bubba, Roch's statistics are not like the modeled predictions, but the unquestioned fact that over the past 30 years, we've seen about 1-1.5oF increase in average global temperature. Your attitude of "my speculations are correct, but I'll trash your observed evidence" is the hallmark of someone with no experience with the scientific method, but at least you're consistent.

Bubba

"Scientific Method", used in a sentence in support of a global warming "consensus" statement?

Please.....you are insulting the climate scientists who retain their academic and intellectual integrity on this subject.

Whatever it is that the "scientific consensus" gang is saying on this subject, especially as it pertains to "anthropogenic global warming", it most certainly is NOT supported by what is commonly referred to as the "Scientific Method".

The Description, Prediction, and Control facets used to support the "consensus" are bogus or non-existent when dealing with anthropogenic elements.

There is NO empirical evidence that supports pointing the finger at anthropogenic "global warming".

Period.

th


Bubba

Correction: The next to last sentence in my last post should end with the words "as the cause".

Connie Mack Jr

Correction: The next to last sentence in my last post should end with the words "as the cause".* Bubba

Bubba! I am entering you in the Republican Presidental Candiate race, after watching you change your political conservative neo-con positions on every known phony issue and psycho babble within the Republican Party like Mitt, John, and Rudy G.

Go Big Brother Bubba!

Jim Caserta

Uh, there is "consensus" about the fact that the average global temperature has gone up in the past 30 years. Any dispute deals with (1) why, (2) where temperatures will go in the future, or (3) what the consequences will be.

The ability to quickly dismiss any observation that does not fit your view is by definition unscientific.

Drumming up leprosy as a "concern" is alarmist, especially when based on incorrect information. There are plenty of things to be rightly concerned about, but when you put out incorrect unverifiable information your credibility on things you may even be correct about becomes questioned.

Connie Mack Jr

There are plenty of things to be rightly concerned about,* Jim

You got that right! Like getting our ass out of Iraq right now, before you drown in a Global warming "free" police state.

Bubba

"There are plenty of things to be rightly concerned about, but when you put out incorrect unverifiable information your credibility on things you may even be correct about becomes questioned."

Sure, Jim.

Columbia University, The New York Times, and Bellvue Hospital are all pushing an alarmist, anti-immigrant bias, all based on incorrect information.

Just because you and Roch say so, based on a number found in an HHS report, without questioning the accuracy, or the conditions under which such data has been collected.


It's the same process by which you (and others) arrive at your unsupportable position on "global warming".

And you're not even embarrassed to admit it.

Yet I'm the one who shows "the hallmark of someone with no experience with the scientific method."


Unbelievable....but consistently wrong on your part.

Are we not lucky to have such experts on so many issues keep us straight on this blog?

What would we ever do without them?

Jim Caserta

Bubba, I would bet that my opinions on global warming would be supported by a far larger number of people than yours, on almost any website.

Your implication that the HHS numbers should be ignored is laughable. How Dobbs falls back on his position is on the fact that there are probably around 7000 total existing cases of leprosy currently in the US, which is much different than 7000 new cases in the last 3 years - about a 10X difference. Careful, that is rate of change versus total.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=health&res=9406E0D81E3AF93BA25751C0A9659C8B63
Even though "Dr. William Levis, attending physician at Bellevue Hospital's Hansen's Disease Clinic. ''There are probably many, many more.''", I doubt he thinks there are 10X as many cases, and I would strongly doubt that he would claim that HHS is misrepresenting their statistics.

Roch101

Bubba,

Thank you. Your demonstrated lack of reason and willfull turning away from factual information is a very helpful reminder of how the ideology of the right is maintained. You provide a great service, sir.

Connie Mack Jr

Are we not lucky to have such experts on so many issues keep us straight on this blog?

What would we ever do without them?* Bubba

Bubba! You would have a better chance proving that Paris Hilton was not victum of Global Warming when she checks in next month to the LA county jail as a internet court appointed expert.


"keep us straight on this blog?"* Bubba

Bubba! You are the perfect straight man for anybody when it comes to defending conservative causes in the 21 st century of neo-con republican politics.

Bubba

"Thank you. Your demonstrated lack of reason and willfull turning away from factual information is a very helpful reminder of how the ideology of the right is maintained. You provide a great service, sir."


You disappoint me. After all the hope I placed in you, it seems you're no better than the usual run of the mill.

Too bad......

Bubba

"Bubba, I would bet that my opinions on global warming would be supported by a far larger number of people than yours, on almost any website."

Of course..... that's your "scientific consensus".


Tell us: When is anything in the world of science proven by "consensus"?


"Your implication that the HHS numbers should be ignored is laughable."

I made no such implication.

Your assertion that the HHS numbers are unassailable fact displays your narrow mindedness on this issue.

Connie Mack Jr

Tell us: When is anything in the world of science proven by "consensus"?*Bubba

How about the Nobel peace prize to get things started in nuclear radiation fission which makes MRI image machines and spots inflated leropy counts?

Connie Mack Jr

Tell us: When is anything in the world of science proven by "consensus"?*Bubba

Bubba! Are you sure in your last conservative Bush life was with the consensus group of the Roman Catholic Church that claim the earth was scienctic flat?

Jim Caserta

If our options are Bubba's (1) do nothing, or (2) take sensible action, even readers at the CA agrees on taking sensible action There is little dispute of certain things:
1. The earth has warmed.
2. Greenhouse gases have contributed.
Dispute surrounds
3. How much further warming will occur,
4. What the consequences of further warming will be.

The only actions I've ever advocated are:
1. Increased use of nuclear, and
2. Increased auto fuel efficiency.
These are so liberal that they even made it into the SOTU address.

As for the HHS #'s, there is their 165 new cases/year, or the Dobbs calculated 2,333 new/yr. It's a safe bet that the actual # is closer to 165 than 2300+.

As for consensus, most science IS based on agreed upon facts and theories. Take any of my EE textbooks, which contain hundreds of equations that NO ONE disputes. People might disagree about how to implement a circuit, but the fundamental operation of transistors is 100% agreed upon.

Ed Cone

Connie: you are on notice for trolling.

Stop flooding the comments with semi-coherent flame-baits, or you will be banned.

Bubba has a blog of his own. If you want to pick fights with him, do it there.

Bubba

"People might disagree about how to implement a circuit, but the fundamental operation of transistors is 100% agreed upon."

And the direct application of this statement to climate science is.......?

Jim Caserta

Tell us: When is anything in the world of science proven by "consensus"?

Science does not 'use' consensus but observation. And once the facts are shown, consensus lines up quickly.

Connie Mack Jr

Connie: you are on notice for trolling.* Ed

Good for you! Been here for year or so and I now a troll!

Stop flooding the comments with semi-coherent flame-baits, or you will be banned.*Ed

Batshit Ed, you are the half ass incoherent bastard....ban me asshole if this bothers you...So much for your sincere humanity liberal thoughts. It's your site....have at it.....

Bubba has a blog of his own. If you want to pick fights with him, do it there.*Ed

Uh! I don't believe in body contact at my age. Bubba might be faster than me in the 40 if that is problem.

Bubba! Do you want to make some fast bucks. Meet me in the Greensboro Arena when Smackdown comes to town and I will share the game prizes with you. You and I one on one, macho, macho, man on man, sissy on sissy, consevative on constitutionist, with our laptops smacking each other with the mouses. Be sure to wear your pink conservative tights so the fans will know you are the real sissy in the fight of the century in Greensboro.

Ed Cone

I asked nicely.

B'bye.

If your wife runs for office again, I will open comments to you as a campaign spokesman.

Bubba

Ah, thanks for bringing my aattention back to this thread, Ed. I did'nt see Jim caserta's last response.

"And once the facts are shown, consensus lines up quickly."

When do you think the Alarmists plan to start using facts to support their position?

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