This bit of number-crunching from the post-Nate Silver NYT shows a couple of things:
- Kay Hagan has tough, tough road ahead of her.
- Number-crunching without context is of limited value.
The voter-turnout analysis certainly looks grim for Hagan -- but the article ignores some key factors that might influence turnout.
Like, say, the long-running and highly-visible protest movement against the GOP regime in Raleigh, and the underlying ire upon which that movement is built. Hagan could well have a more motivated base in 2014 than is typical of off-year elections, and a sophisticated GOTV machine to activate it.
Writer Nate Cohn seems to be looking at statistics in a vaccum (he also ignores factors like the extreme dysfunction of the NCDP, and the influence of outside money). The raw numbers tell a story, but they don't tell the whole story.