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Nov 06, 2012

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sean coon

does this mean bubba goes away for good?

sorry, i'm admittedly overexcited.

MojoNixon

Now that the result is no longer in doubt, I want to run up the score. Keep counting, California.

Ged

Oh lookie. Not only does Obama get four more years, wait that's all I wanted to say.

Now comes the inevitable hand wringing on the right. Hopefully they'll get over it and learn to compromise but I'm not holding my breath.

sean coon

looks like silver might have under estimated the electoral count. it looks to be > 315.

prell

I came here expecting meltdowns from the resident cons. I leave disappointed.

While I never cast a vote for President Obama, I really hope he and the congress can get things turned around in the next four years.

That was a very powerful and uplifting speech, btw.

Ishmael

:)!

David Hoggard

Until my party stops coming off as that of the "angry white guy" who "wants his country back", it will continue to be neutered nationally with even larger losses than this one.

"His" country is not coming back. Until/unless "he" embraces that reality as a good thing and begins to mold the party's priorities to the real world and stops pushing a social agenda that excludes more than it includes, "he" will wander in the wilderness in a self imposed exile until "he" finally, blessedly expires... in abject loneliness and irrelevance.

David Boyd

Tru dat, Hoggard.

Dave Ribar

Our conservative friends will take some solace from gaining the reins to the executive and legislative branches in NC and also gaining control of the Guilford County government.

Across the country, Republicans also picked up governorships and held the House of Representatives.

Andrew Brod

Turns out that the polling was pretty accurate, especially about the very-close battleground states. The polling averages indicated small but persistent Obama leads in those states, and that's what happened... with the possible exception of Florida, which could still go either way apparently.

By the way, if Obama's lead in Florida stands, Drew Linzer's Votamatic prediction of 332 electoral votes for Obama will be exactly right. If Romney ends up taking Florida, he'll remain at 303, making Nate Silver's 538 prediction of 305 look pretty good. So we'll see.

Andrew Brod

Well, I should note that the polls saw a slim Romney lead in N.C., which was obviously how it came out as well.

Ged

I for one am so proud of NC's performance in this election. I really didn't expect the race to be so close for Obama here. Seems like progressives in Raliegh didn't get out enough to change the result but still. Fine job my liberal friends!

bubba

"...does this mean bubba goes away for good?"

Not a chance, little buddy.

Andrew Brod

Besides, Bubba has a lot to gloat about. As Ed notes, other than losing the presidency, things went pretty well for the GOP. The Dems have fewer than 60 Senators, so that's effectively a minority for most measures, and the GOP kept the House. Repubs did well in state races around the county, including in N.C. and especially in Guilford County.

Guilford went 57% for Obama but voted in a strongly conservative county commission.

Brian

But Guilford goes 57% for Obama happens with or without redistricting. The County Commissioner results were certainly assisted by redistricting.

Spag

This was a lot like the morning after the Amendment One vote- you wake up and nothing has really changed. Well, Obama may actually have to govern this time around. Perhaps his friend Bill Clinton can help him with that. If he continues to spend his energy arguing that higher taxes on the rich are the cure to all of our economic problems instead of offering an economic plan that is based in reality, malaise will continue and he may leave office with numbers similar to what Bush had at the end of his 2nd term.

The country is evenly divided. There is no mandate for Obama or his opponents because it seems that most Americans aren't enamored with the base-oriented solutions offered by either of them. Now would be a really good time for Obama and Boehner to reconsider Simpson-Bowles.

Andrew Brod

Given the economy's continuing weakness, "now" would be a really bad time to reconsider Simpson-Bowles, unless its deficit-reduction measures are timed to take effect in the future. The economy appears to be picking up a bit, and we might, at some point in the not-so-distant future, finally be in a position that deficit reduction wouldn't be self-defeating.

So I guess I'm just arguing about the timing. Now bad, future good.

But as a prediction, Spag's comment may well be on the nose. I wouldn't be surprised if the president embraces S-B now. He's often repeated Republican talking points on the deficit and debt.

Andrew Brod

The really bad news for Repubs at the national level is that their guy won't be in the White House as the economy finally picks up some steam. Keep in mind that the forecast of 12 million new jobs that Romney trumpeted was a baseline forecast, not a prediction of what'd happen if he got elected. So instead of Romney benefiting and cruising to reelection in 2016, it'll be Obama benefiting and perhaps setting the table for a Dem successor in 2016.

That is, unless Congress screws the pooch with this fiscal-cliff stuff. That whole thing should be made to disappear like a fart in a stiff wind. A strengthening economy will start cutting sharply into the deficit without Congress doing anything.

So... I guess Repubs have an incentive to keep that from happening.

Roch

Sam, when you talk out of your ass, how do the words get typed? Is the propulsion of air enough to depress they keys on your computer?

Sam: "If he continues to spend his energy arguing that higher taxes on the rich are the cure to all of our economic problems... Now would be a really good time for Obama and Boehner to reconsider Simpson-Bowles."

The Washington Post: "Simpson-Bowles used a baseline that assumed that the Bush tax cuts for high-income Americans would be allowed to expire."

Roch

"Keep in mind that the forecast of 12 million new jobs that Romney trumpeted was a baseline forecast, not a prediction of what'd happen if he got elected." -- Andy

No, it was a prediction:

Romney: "My five point plan will create 12 million new jobs."

(I know it was the baseline forecast first, but Romney repackaged it as a prediction of the result of his "plan.")

MojoNixon

Boom goes the dynamite.

Andrew Brod

That's how I meant it to read, Roch.

Rotting Ivory Tower

"unless Congress screws the pooch with this fiscal-cliff stuff. That whole thing should be made to disappear like a fart in a stiff wind."

Absolutely scary stupid.

Andrew Brod

Also, Obama has never argued that "higher taxes on the rich are the cure to all of our economic problems." Spag's repetition of this canard doesn't make it accurate.

Yes, Obama advocates returning the top rate to where it was under Clinton. But it's not because he sees it as an economic panacea. It's because it would return some fairness to the tax code and promote sanity in fiscal policy. If you want deficit reduction, this is one of the least harmful ways of doing it. The president knows that the rich don't spend enough of that top money for higher rates to be anti-stimulative, and that "job-creator" meme was undermined entirely by the Bush tax cuts and the woeful job creation during the expansion of 2001-07.

Andrew Brod

To put it differently, everyone knows that raising taxes in a depression is going to have some anti-stimulative effects. But if one is forced to do deficit reduction, this particular tax increase would be just about the least harmful way to go about doing it.

My preference would be that we set deficit reduction aside for another year or so, until we see how the economy is doing. That implies leaving the Bush tax cuts in place for a while longer. But if we insist on deficit reduction now, repealing the Bush tax cuts for upper-income people is the smartest way to start.

Roch

OK Andy, I read it as letting Romney off the hook. My bad.

Andrew Brod

No, I wrote it too vaguely, my dear Gaston.

Spag

The president must also know that the income from raising taxes on the rich isn't enough to come close to reigning in the deficit.

Rain Man's comment contains a glaring error in his interpretation that renders a response unnecessary. Besides, I have a policy on that.

Brod, I hope we have more job creation. But if we don't and the President hasn't offered anything but rhetoric and higher taxes as the path to job creation, he is going to find himself in George W. Bush approval rating territory by this time next year.

I figure he has about 10 months to get something done and for the public to see steady improvement. He was given a second chance last night in a close race where he lost support compared to his first election. Both Obama and Boehner are capable of "screwing the pooch".

Andrew Brod

"The President hasn't offered anything but rhetoric and higher taxes as the path to job creation."

Wrong again. He tried to get a jobs bill passed last year, but there was this one group of people, I can't remember which, who stopped it.

Oh, group of people: GOP.

Andrew Brod

And once again, returning to the Clinton-era top tax rate isn't designed to create jobs. So, wrong on that too.

Hartzman

Andrew Brod "The really bad news for Repubs at the national level is that their guy won't be in the White House as the economy finally picks up some steam."

The economy has been on artificial steroids until now.

I believe your economic outlook will miss expectations.

Andrew Brod

The "artificial steroids" have been gone for some time. This, finally, is real. It's not big enough, but it's real.

And in fact, to repeat something I believe I wrote yesterday, it's even more real than appears on the surface, because the Obama recovery has had to proceed with one hand tied behind its back. It's been 57 months since the recession started. At that point in the Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43 recoveries, government employment was up 4% on average. Here in the Obama recovery, it's down 2%. That 6% weight is something the previous recoveries didn't have to schlep around. And yet things are picking up anyway.

Hartzman

"That is, unless Congress screws the pooch with this fiscal-cliff stuff. That whole thing should be made to disappear like a fart in a stiff wind. A strengthening economy will start cutting sharply into the deficit without Congress doing anything."

I fear Andrew is living in a dream world.

Read any international economic indicators lately?

I believe we are entering a global recession centering on Europe, China's biggest customer. It was all put off until the American Election. Now we get to reap what we've sown.

Andrew Brod

I look at economic indicators all the time. Yep, Europe's swung back into recession, but not because of debt problems. The deficit/GDP ratio in the eurozone, for example, is projected to be much lower than ours. And yet they're in recession and we're not.

Roch

"The president must also (fart, fart, fart) know that the income from (fart, fart, fart) raising taxes on the rich isn't enough to come close to (fart, fart, fart) reigning in the deficit." -- Sam

Apparently, you do not know that he does.

Fox and Limbaugh are rotting your brain.

Hartzman

"Europe's swung back into recession, but not because of debt problems."

Cognitive Dissonance

Roch

"The President hasn't (fart, fart, fart) offered anything but (fart, fart, fart) rhetoric and higher taxes as the path to (fart, fart, fart) job creation." -- Sam

Wrong.

Andrew Brod

Not cognitive dissonance, George, just insight. Deficits over there were caused by the first round of recession; they weren't the cause. Something similar is happening now. The UK's double-dip happened right after the newly elected Tory/LibDem coalition tried to reduce debt by imposing government austerity in late 2010. It backfired. (Their 2nd quarter looked good, thanks to the Olympics, so we'll see if they pull out of recession now.)

sean coon

spag: nothing's changed.

reality: romney lost, obama is in office for four more years, the wealthiest americans *will* pay more taxes, democratic lead immigration reform *is* around the corner, PPACA *will* move forward not backward, women's health rights *will* be protected, the loudest and looniest of the republican party -- the akins of the world who were defended here -- got walloped in state races, the GOP has been reduced, by their own hands, to a one-trick, "hey whitey, vote for me!" party...

you're right, nothing has changed.

sean coon

oh yeah, forgot one, say bye-bye to the conservative supreme court.

Ged

The supreme court is a big one. Conservatives can chant "nothing's changed" all they want, but Obama will most likely get to nominate two new (and probably relatively young) progressive court judges. That in of itself is the single biggest addition to his legacy he won last night, besides the Affordable Care Act of course.

Spag

Ged, you are right about that. Obama's reelection did settle the issue of Obamacare, and a change in the Court is likely. Whether Obama gets to replace a conservative with a liberal will be the real question.

On the Right, Kennedy is the most likely to retire. Scalia will stick around as long as he can, and may wait out another four years. But if either retires, Obama will have an impact. Less so if Breyer or Ginsburg retire, both of which are likely now.

Ged

Thanks Sam. What I *honestly* hope happens is that both sides work together to retool and tweak Obamacare and make it better instead of out and out gutting it or repealing it. There are parts of the act that are absolutely good law and there are parts that are not. With a little luck, maybe the Affordable Care Act can be the tinkering project that both sides so desperately need so that they can come together on and improve for the good of all of us.

That's my hope anyway.

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