The North Carolina Republican Party is circulating early-turnout numbers that look good for Romney and for Pat McCrory, although my sense is that McCrory is a mortal lock in any case. NC GOP Executive director Scott Laster confirmed to me these numbers come from his team.
Combined Early Vote Returns (One Stop Voting + Vote by Mail) compared to 2008
- Democrats share of total votes cast has decreased by more than 3.5%
o Raw total of Ds have declined by 55k
- Republicans share of total votes cast has increased by nearly 1.5%
o Raw total of Rs have increased by 63k
- Unaffiliateds share of total votes cast has increased by more than 2%
o Raw total of Us have increased 77k
- The Republican/Democrat swing makes up over 110k votes
Age Group voting trends through the One Stop Period:
- 18-30 year olds finished One Stop Voting nearly 1% below their 2008 performance.
- 31-44 year olds finished One Stop Voting nearly 3% below their 2008 performance.
- 45-65 year olds finished One Stop Voting nearly even with their 2008 performance at +.02%
- 66+ finished One Stop Voting 4.5% above their 2008 performance. This age group experience the largest change and an increase of over 110,000 votes specific to this age block.
Related. Related; there was a line when Lisa voted yesterday at the Weatherspoon Museum, but the crowd was well-behaved.
"nice try, but we know the proprietor is only releasing such information in order for tuesday's results to have less of a wounding impact than they would if our omnipotent host had chosen to ignore our victory. we know your agenda, the worldview behind it and your false position of a moral high ground."
- bubba
Posted by: sean coon | Nov 04, 2012 at 04:17 PM
All of this seems to fly in the face of this reported yesterday:
"North Carolina
About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the early vote by 11 percentage points."
Guess we just won't know until all the votes are counted.
Posted by: Ged | Nov 04, 2012 at 04:48 PM
The Obama folks were just at my door. Third time since early voting began.
No Rommey folks have been here, ever. Maybe someone put a secret mark on my door.
Posted by: justcorbly | Nov 04, 2012 at 05:06 PM
JC, volunteers in a GOTV effort are supposed to contact people who are likely to vote for their candidate, so your party registration or other info may put you on a do-not-knock list for Romney.
Posted by: Ed Cone | Nov 04, 2012 at 05:19 PM
So…. *they* know!
Posted by: justcorbly | Nov 04, 2012 at 06:07 PM
Both sides know. They're not going door to door at this point, they're going to specific doors.
Obama volunteers (at least some of them) can update voter info from their home computers to make the effort as efficient as possible.
Posted by: Ed Cone | Nov 04, 2012 at 06:34 PM
Ed, it works the other way too. Romney folks are signed up as obama canvassers for certain neighborhoods then go out do the Romney thing instead.
Posted by: Hugh | Nov 04, 2012 at 07:07 PM
Spoken for yourself, in the way only Seanie Drama can do, proving you have no idea what the informations tells you......just like your famed stock volume chart comment.
Don't give up your day job, son.
Posted by: bubba | Nov 04, 2012 at 07:45 PM
+1, Sean Coon. +1.
Posted by: MojoNixon | Nov 04, 2012 at 08:37 PM
Ged, I don't see how the two reports conflict. The NCRP report doesn't say how many Dems and Repubs and Unaffs voted early, just how many more or less did so than in 2008. It reports a Dem-to-Repub swing of 118K votes, but the data in Ed's post don't provide enough context to say whether that's a lot or a little.
But if the HuffPo numbers are right, then 1.2 million early votes have been cast by Dems, in which case a loss of 55K early votes seems rather small. On the other hand, 55K is quite big relative to Obama's winning margin of 14K in 2008.
As you note, we won't know until we know.
Posted by: Andrew Brod | Nov 04, 2012 at 09:24 PM
"Don't give up your day job, son."
Are bubba and sean kin?
Posted by: prell | Nov 04, 2012 at 09:29 PM
Prell, all will be revealed in the new Star Wars movie.
Posted by: Ed Cone | Nov 04, 2012 at 09:47 PM
Hugh's comment that Romney folks have infiltrated the ranks of the Obama canvassing machine ... is totally wack-o. And do these ringers falsify the reports that are returned? That all the registered Dems have, to a person, flipped?
Having been out there for several days, I can say it would be easier for a Wolfpacker to masquerade as a Tar Heel fan in the Dean Dome. You might get in a couple of whoops, but the lack of sincerity would be fatal.
Posted by: TL | Nov 04, 2012 at 11:18 PM
Hugh, is that really the reality you inhabit? What put that notion into your head?
Posted by: Roch | Nov 05, 2012 at 08:23 AM
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!
Posted by: sean coon | Nov 05, 2012 at 08:27 AM
Back into the basement little toads.
Posted by: sittinginthemiddle. | Nov 05, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Roch, the story I have from a trusted source was of this happening in another state. There's no reason to believe it couldn't be done here. It leads Team Obama to believe certain neighborhoods have already been canvassed when the opposite is true.
From a tactical standpoint in dirty politics, it's brilliant.
Posted by: Hugh | Nov 05, 2012 at 12:48 PM
A trusted source. Oh well then. Does the world seem contrary to the way you expect it should be a lot, Hugh?
Posted by: Roch | Nov 05, 2012 at 01:01 PM
Roch, on the contrary. Nothing surprises me anymore.
Posted by: Hugh | Nov 05, 2012 at 02:00 PM
"Are bubba and sean kin?"
What? Are you implying that Seanie's a little bastard?
Shall we all go on Maury's show to settle it?
Posted by: bubba | Nov 05, 2012 at 08:06 PM