"Facebook is not only on course to go bust, but will take the rest of the ad-supported Web with it." 

We'll see. 

Much more here from Doc Searls.

Comments

[Pump And Dump]

Facebook is not only on course to go bust,*Ed

Another old scam by the Wall Street Financial Terrorist Bankgangesters. The insiders get the cash first and head out of Dodge.. uh. make that Zionist save haven Singpore

Occupy!

[liv]

Facebook's problem is it's lack of websearch features. It could (can) breach into that market if it were willing.

Facebook HAS to become a search engine or it will become eaten by Google or Microsoft.

Google+ is already a superior product, it just lacks participation at this point.

[ron]

I just read where Facebook is getting ready to make a smartphone

[It's over Dude]

I think facebook might make it like the biggestest law firm on the Planet and most of Corporate America under Obama and Romney* paraphasing ED

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47597115/ns/business-us_business/t/storied-law-firm-folds-after-partners-flee/#.T8S-K8BkDsU.mailto

[Jim Buie]

The articles Ed posts are interesting and provocative. I agree that if FB continues to bank on display advertising for 80% of its revenue, its' future could be doomed. But Facebook only needs to get 1% of its nearly one billion members to purchase "premium services" of one kind or another to be rolling in dough.

One premium service might be a few dollars a month for extra storage capacity, for heavy users. FB's photo and video sharing and archiving capability will make devoted archivists stick around for the rest of their lives because well, where else are you going to put your photos and videos? Hard drives that crash, CDs and DVDs that must be labelled (and often aren't) eventually become dead or outmoded. Where are you going to put your (increasingly digital) music, movie and book library?

FB might also get into the blogging platform business -- seems FB could eat Typepad's lunch because of FB's unique ability to attract a larger audience for posts. Might FB get into the e-book publishing and print on demand business and eat the lunch of companies like Lulu.com?

If your FB friend recommends a TV show, movie or book and all you have to do is pay a few dollars to click and download it, might you?

Agree that FB needs to greatly improve its search capability. How about the ability to search or get a chronological list of one's own status updates by category?

I'm less impressed with FB's incorporation of Spotify and Skype, and with Facebook Marketplace. Not much added value from what I can see. Farmville was a fad for a while, but my son and other teens who only a couple of years ago were asking their parents to buy virtual property on FVille seem to have lost interest.

Seems like FB missed an opportunity to promote florists for Mother's Day. At least I don't remember seeing any ads.

Still, it's awfully early days to declare Facebook doomed.

[Ed Cone]

Definitely early to be writing the obit.

But "if we could just..." plans don't always pan out.

People are social animals, and people will keep being social online. But there's no guarantee that FB will be the place they do it. As the Farmville example shows, things that were hot five minutes ago often are passe today.

[Thomas]

I still have an unease about my privacy on FB. It may just be a lingering suspicion from things that have since been fixed, but it keeps me from using any part of the service other than reading friends posts and occasionally commenting. I never even "like" anything.

[Roch]

"I never even "like" anything." -- T

"Liking" is one means by which Facebook violated your privacy.

I don't understand Jim's enthusiasm for Facebook sweeping up more of the internet. Not only does that promise to put even more personal information into Facebook's dossiers, but it portends more homogenization and a diminution of the generative characteristics of the Internet itself which, I guess, are not had things in the minds of a lot of people.

[Ed Cone]

A lot of FB's benefits come down to "here's a better way for you to find stuff to buy."

Not really a priority for me, and not the filter through which I want to view my friendships.

[Billy Jones]

As long as Facebook has users it won't be going anywhere. DARPA and the CIA will see to it.