Mileah Kromer is a poly sci professor at Elon and assistant director of the Elon University poll. I asked her about voter turnout and Amendment 1, e.g., what would the impact be if Santorum bows out after PA, what's the overall relationship between turnout and the fate of Amendment 1, and so on?

She replied:

My general thought is this: Citizens use what political scientists call the "calculus of voting" when deciding if and when they will vote. Part of this decision is determined by the probability that their vote will "matter"...so in that case, Santorum/Paul/Gingrich all bowing out could potentially suppress Republican turnout.

That being said, Santorum has done really well with church-going, evangelical Christian voters, who are the core demographic that support same-sex marriage bans. With Santorum out, this could keep some voters home, but at the same time, these voters may be coming to the polls to vote for Amendment 1 independent of any presidential or gubernatorial race.

Amendment 1 will be decided by which side gets their voters to the booth in May. This is a true "get out the vote" situation for both proponents and opponents the amendment. It is time for both sides to start the political "full court press"--phone banking, door-to-door, yard signs, and ramping up all tv/radio/print advertising.

Emphasis added.

Comments

[Kim]

To what extent does this issue cross party lines?

[Ed Cone]

Great question, and one that I'd guess might complicate traditional GOTV strategies...

For example, black voters are a core Democratic constituency, yet black voters have been much less likely to support gay rights than some other causes widely supported by Democrats, and yet again there seems to be movement on this issue, at least as measured by statements from leaders of organizations like the NC NAACP...

And meanwhile, the libertarian wing of the GOP may be much more friendly to civil unions and other gay rights issues than the self-described social conservatives, and the business wing of the party may have problems with this law for a couple of reasons...

So, it's complicated.

[prell]

"To what extent does this issue cross party lines?"

I think it transcends partisan politics. I'm a registered Democrat and my wife is a registered Republican. We're both opposed to the amendment. My brother and his wife are registered Republicans and are also opposed to the amendment. Mom is a conservative Republican and dad is a liberal Democrat. There are three signs in their front yard: one for Jon Hardister, another for Pat McCrory, and a Vote No to Amendment 1 sign.

I'm 31 and my brother is 30. We grew up and went to high school and college with openly gay kids. We're not butthurt over the sexual preferences of others. It has no bearing on our economic and social lives.

[designation]

Re transcending party lines:

Former Charlotte mayors Harvey Gantt (D) and Richard Vinroot (R) speaking against Amendment One...

http://youtu.be/PnXkhOUv7No

The NC Libertarian Party also adopted a resolution against Amendment One at their convention in March.