GSO/Guilford Pols

October 2014

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

« Trash talk | Main | Field work »

May 18, 2011

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341cc33e53ef015432639461970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Tongue of Newt:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Roch101

Not so fast. Newt takes a position favored by 80% of the public and he's toast?

Talk to me after Iowa.

Ed Cone

He was never going to be nominated -- too much baggage, both political and personal.

And remember, he only held the popular position for a few hours -- he's spent the last two days arguing with himself.

Doomed from the start, but now you can stick a fork in him.

Jim Langer

He forgot Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.

polifrog

Roch101:

Newt takes a position favored by 80% of the public...

What position is that?

tk solomon

if newt had to kiss a baby to get a delegate, he'd do it

if newt had to eat the baby with the cord attached, he'd do that

he has trouble finding guns he can stick to

Roch101

Polifrog, in opposition to Ryan's abolishing of Medicare.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/0518/Was-Newt-Gingrich-right-about-GOP-s-Medicare-plan

And I still say he's being underestimated.

Andrew Brod

Frog, Roch's referring to what Newt said about the Ryan plan to dismantle Medicare as we know it; he called it "radical change" and "right-wing social engineering". That's a popular view, as most of the public, even the Tea Party, likes Medicare.

But then Newt reversed himself and is now correctly toeing the GOP party line. Good boy, Newt.

Andrew Brod

But Roch, is he being misunderestimated?

JB

When we lost Trump I was afraid the pre-primary laugh meter would fall out of the red zone. But with Newt in the mix, we're in good hands. It'll be interesting to see who survives the tea party-dominated GOP primaries. And whether that person can then swim back to the electable middle without causing the heads of their base to explode. Personally, I doubt it.

polifrog

I just watched the entire interview.

In it Newt attacked the Ryan plan, supported a "version of the individual mandate and is forced to defend himself from accusations of "coded" racism which required one to don Gregory's racism to see.

I didn't realize these three issues were in a single interview.

On the Ryan bit Newt seemed to attack social engineering from the left and right based on whether they mandated individuals to make a predetermined decision. He seemed to argue that we need a plan that allows people to "voluntarily migrate to better solutions" and that the Ryan plan did not meet that need. Later, though, he contradicted himself and expressed support for a version of the individual mandate.

In this interview I believe we see a failed attempt at triangulation.

We saw Newt fail in his attempt to position himself between the Ryan plan and the see-no-deficit democrats and in the process lose his establishment support. Then then we saw him loose his base and Tea Party support when he expressed support for the individual mandate.

Newt is headed into a primary election not a general election, so now is not the time for triangulation failed or otherwise. In this interview he lost his support in the primaries from his base, the establishment, and the Tea Party.

Newt burned himself.

I'm sad to see him go as I had looked forward to what Newt would have brought to the debates.

Jim Langer

And now the field clears for Pawlenty. Can't you just hear the roar of support?

Neuter Newt Fan

NEWT! NEWT! NEWT! So yesterday as usual......

Hugh

Newt won't make it past the first round of the primaries.

Gingrich donors dropping like flies:
http://gop12.thehill.com/2011/05/gingrich-donors-dropping-like-flies.html

Hugh

And paying attention to declared candidates 18 months out from the election is like watching the pre-game show for the NIT.

Preston Earle

I have no idea what's going to be the final result of Newt's campaign, but seeing Democrats exalting over the end of his chances reminds me of this: "Nothing is over til we say it's over".

Ron

Its looking more and more like an Obama victory in 2012. Mitt Romney's is the GOP's best hope and even he has some serious baggage such is his Mass healthcare plan which is identical to Obamacare.

bubba

"Newt takes a position favored by 80% of the public and he's toast?"

80%?

Really?

Jim Langer

Bob, isn't that a Kaiser Permanente poll, of their own administrating? Come on, now. Do you think they really "explained both sides"? A slight bias, don't you think?

Jim Langer

This ABC poll sounds more likely, with breakdowns by age ranges, too:
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/us/medicare_poll_031208.html

Plus, ABC is owned by Murdoch, hardly a supporter of Obama.

Ed Cone

Hugh, I agree that it's still early days -- at this point in 1991, Bill Clinton was a relative unknown.

Preston, see my agreement with Hugh about early days, but one reason I'm confident Newt is through is that I never thought he (or Barbour -- or Trump, who is in a category of his own) had a real chance to begin with. But this was no ordinary stumble, this was a major screwup with the base, and, as the link indicates, the money people.

80% is a huge number on almost any question, and of course the framing matters, I think one can take it as "a substantial majority."

Jim Langer

Another breakdown, not from the Christian Science Monitor (ironic, isn't that?), but US News, with 78% as the number opposed, as well.

Andrew Brod

I don't think Democrats are exulting about Newt's screw-up so much as they're snickering at him. I'm not saying the latter is less petty than the former, but there is a difference.

polifrog

Jim:

Bob, isn't that a Kaiser Permanente poll, of their own administrating? Come on, now.

Did you click the link?

It leads to a page that shows the ABC poll to be an outlier amid many polls on the topic.

I find Bubba's putting the ABC pool in context helpful. Not sure why you wouldn't.

bubba

".....isn't that a Kaiser Permanente poll, of their own administrating? Come on, now. Do you think they really "explained both sides"? A slight bias, don't you think?"

Here's a hint, Jim: Kaiser's poll was only ONE of several listed in the graph.

You think somehow Kaiser changed other polls' numbers around to fit their opinion?

"Plus, ABC is owned by Murdoch....."

Really? Do tell......

bubba

" I think one can take it as 'a substantial majority.'"

....assuming "one" wants to be wrong, of course.

bubba

Regarding Gingrich, our friend John Hood puts it in the right perspective:

"President Obama is another person who exhibits far more intelligence than wisdom. He is the ideal candidate of the academic Left, for whom verbal acuity and abstract thinking are markers of status. Gingrich has a far different ideology, obviously, but he is also essentially a man of the intelligentsia. You listen to such people. You learn from them. You honor their intellectual accomplishments. But you don’t put them in charge of anything."

Mick

I like that.

JB

Yes, I always look to the Locker's for my analysis of Democrats. This time it can be boiled down to "our guy just proved once again that he's a nut. But hey, look... he's just like your guy. So, your guy is a nut, too." Please.

Newt is a bombastic bombthrower. Excellent for heaving overblown rhetoric-grenades from the back bench, and unfit for pretty much anything else. Except, as I mentioned before, comic relief.

bubba

"Please."

Would you like me to explain it to you in a manner that might help you understand what he actually said?

The comments to this entry are closed.