Roubini says recovery will be "U-shaped, anaemic and below trend for at
least a couple of years, after
a couple of quarters of rapid growth driven by the restocking of
inventories and a recovery of production from near Depression levels."
Also, "true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of
financial
institutions have been socialised and put on government balance sheets." [Brit spelling courtesy of FT]
And a double dip is looking more likely:
[P]olicymakers
are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they take large
fiscal deficits seriously and raise taxes, cut spending and mop up
excess liquidity soon, they would undermine recovery and tip the
economy back into stag-deflation (recession and deflation).
But if they maintain large budget
deficits, bond market vigilantes will punish policymakers. Then,
inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond
yields would rise and borrowing rates will go up sharply, leading to
stagflation.
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