Roubini: "While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation."

Comments

[The Committee to Elect George Hartzman]

Hi Ed, Are you suggesting Dr Roubini is being unrealistic or too optimistic?

[G/]

I would never attempt to speak for our host/blogger to the end (how many months ago was that 7th anniversary?), but my read or interpretaion of this blog update is to just share exactly what Professor Roubini stated, with the link there for all.
Although Professor Roubini has had a cold hand since October in terms of the economy and the markets, he continues to be spot-on about housing as he has since 2006.
I would encourage those intereted to follow the Philly Fed's monthly release of economic conditions, as it is the most highly coorelated index known to investors/traders/economists, etc. to the US Economy of any other release, and has been so for the past 28 years.

Take that for the time it took me to type it. FEPO, as we say.
For Educational Purposes Only.
*******************************************************

Now Ed, did I miss the link/post about my friend and our classmate making it to the final table of the WSOP???

Linkfest: (move accoringly or delete, Ed).

{http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=wise_gary&id=4330880}

{http://www.lohud.com/article/20090716/SPORTS01/90716007}

Video Fest:

{http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9D9huBa0bM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fvideo%2Egoogle%2Ecom%2Fvideosearch%3Fsourceid%3Dnavclient%26rlz%3D1T4SUNA%5FenUS317US202%26q%3DSteven%2520Begleiter%2520%252B%2520poker%26um%3D1%26ie%3DUTF%2D8&feature=player_embedded}

{http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4328563}

____________________________________________________

Best.

G/

[Fec 100% Agave]

I've had a few tequilas and stood it for about as long as I can.

George, you are using the same WordPress Atahualpa theme as me. It is capable of wonderful coloring. I live right down the street from you, but still several 100K away. I hear Ovittore is running in D3. To have any chance, you must get it together.

BTW, one word questions will not get you elected. Cone rarely answers. We know you are a world class CPA. Let you freak flag fly.

[Ed Cone]

G, I hadn't seen the poker stuff -- thnx for passing it along. Good to see there's life after Bear...

George, G is right, it's straight link-blogging -- "here's something interesting from someone important that you may not have seen."

Fec, holy cow, "Cone rarely answers?" Cone pretty much always answers. That's my curse.

[Fec 100% Agave]

I'm terribly relieved it's not your Mom.

[The Committee to Elect George Hartzman]

Constructive criticism accepted and appreciated.

What would you suggest for the site?

I also realize I write in riddles. I developed the bizarre writing style from having to obtain compliance approved material to teach with. I usually answer the questions live, so there is an obvious disconnect. I am pretty sure I need to post matching explanatory You Tube type videos. That could be very cool, but I will also kissing my anonymity goodbye, so I’ve been procrastinating.

Either way it’s gone as of tomorrow, so hopefully you will see some positive changes shortly after I figure out how to do it.

For the record, I am not a CPA, but teach CPA continuing education.

I have learned an amazing amount of stuff about my self in the last month.

Thanks for taking part.

The Committee to Elect George Hartzman

[The Committee to Elect George Hartzman]

What brand of tequila?

[Fec 100% Agave]

Reduced circumstances require us to make do with the 30-30 brand. Good luck with the campaign. I shall attach myself to your opponents and bring them the misfortune I've always enjoyed.

[The Committee to Elect George Hartzman]

A buddy of mine distributes Hacienda. He firmly believes it has an incredible taste at an affordable price point. G

[winstongator]

Check out this CNBC vs Denninger vs Roubini. Watch the youtube response to CNBC's interpretation. From this article, Roubini is calling out CNBC for misrepresenting his stance. It is difficult for a buy-buy-buy or sell-sell-sell channel to understand the nuance and actual analysis from Roubini, and they failed to mention his, " "I think we may need in fact a fiscal stimulus some time early next year or before the end of this year," he told reporters ... "It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big,"

What bothered me most during the beginning of the bubble deflation were the pollyanish views: subprime's contained, etc. The structural change of the net US savings going from negative back up to a positive, and even higher than it is now will reduce consumer spending from the ridiculous, unsustainable levels it was at.

[Beelzebubba]

If I were to see a fish climbing a tree, a guitar playing cat or water skiing squirrel, it might conflict with a model I already have. The anomaly would end up as news somewhere.

Ben Stein, Roubini, Joe Biden and the "best economic team on the face of the planet" are missing some of these little zingers:

U-6 unemployment is 16.5%. If 1982 standards are used, it is nearer 20. Individual and corporate tax revenues are shrinking. Home foreclosures are at 345,000 a month. People who own their homes outright will have less than 50k in profit at today's values, regardless of when they bought the property. Most households make less than 47k a year and most have lost their capacity to borrow. There are more than 50 million on SS and 12 million illegal aliens. Add the current number of students in the country and you arrive at a class of consumers who cannot consume the government's way out of this. Social services are being slashed while government is growing. This deflects tax dollars away from humans. Based on projected earnings in the current S&P model, companies cannot pay dividends after 4Q 2010.

There is a flaw in the model which creates this trap. If rates are raised to encourage saving and stimulus is withdrawn, we get the mother of all deflation. If continued lower rates, money printing and deficit expansion is encouraged, you have the mother of all inward collapses. 1Q 2009 job loses were the largest since the data began. 1Q and 2Q 2009 business bankruptcies are running 2.5X. The closest water skiing squirrel to GSO is the number of business licenses which failed to renew because they closed.