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« Hagan blogs | Main | Studio B »

Sep 05, 2008

Our creditors are having problems of their own:

China’s central bank is in a bind.

It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

Implications: The yuan is less likely to appreciate versus the dollar, which "could heighten trade tensions with the United States." And if China cuts way back on dollar-denominated securities, "the dollar would likely fall and American interest rates could soar."

Meanwhile, back on Wall Street: "Goldman said 'very weak' third-quarter results from investment banks and financial services companies will weigh down brokerages over the next two months."

And: "The world of corporate loans now looks like mortgages, circa 2007."

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