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GSO/Guilford Pols

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« Premodernism | Main | Overreaction »

Jan 02, 2008

Under The Dome is running an Iowa Caucus pool.

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Don't feel like going through the extensive sign-up form at the Dome. For kicks, my picks here:

Obama: 37%
Edwards: 31.5%
Clinton: 29.5%

Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 29%
McCain: 15%
Paul: 9%
Thompson: 8%
Giuliani: 7%


Obama and Edwards within one percent of each other for first and second, Clinton 3 percent below. Richardson and Biden will do better than expected, with one, maybe both, in double figures.

No prediction for the GOP. There's only one real Republican in the race. The rest are examples of The Things Bush Created. Except for Paul, who's like your entertaining friend who will never be allowed to drive your car.

I'll wager the Dem turnout is significantly higher than for the GOP.

I thought I heard that you had to pull 15% or more. If you are below 15% your delegates (?) had to vote for someone else and you get 0.

You're right, Mick. I believe caucus goers who support a candidate who fell below the threshold may abstain or switch. The Dems keep all the votes secret and release a tally of delegates won by each candidate. The GOP doesn't have a thresold, and just releases the vote count.

Mick, that's true, for the Dems only and at each individual caucuses. Thus it's possible that, state-wide, a candidate could garner less than 15% but still earn delegates. If, for example, there were enough caucuses where Richardson met the 15% threshold, he could show up with a state-wide percentage of something less than 15%. The 15% threshold applies to the caucus, not the state-wide total.

After the candidates failing to reach 15% are eliminated, all voters get to recast votes for the remaining candidates, not just those whose candidates are eliminated. As Roch said, this is only true at caucuses for the Dems.

Roch:

I posted your numbers for you and will consider you an entrant:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/the_dome_office_pool#comment-2929

RTB

Thanks, Ryan.

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