Some interesting results in yesterday's primary, but my crystal ball says the revolution is not yet upon us.

The 7.2% turnout beat the headcount for the 2005 primary, but still only slightly exceeded the number of people who would randomly wander into the churches and schools used as polling places on an average day; it probably included a relatively high-proportion voters with strong agendas. That is to say, I would expect the status quo candidates to do well in November, when turnout skyrockets to...well, it was 12% in 2005, and we have a mayoral race and the Wray fray this time, so I'm putting the over/under at 20%.

In the at-large race, Mary Rakestraw is the big story. She's got good name recognition and a strong position on the GPD mess. I'm not sure how closely voters follow these things, but some must remember that she got the shiv from the Guilford GOP in her previous job as a County commissioner, and take from that what they will.

It's hard to see any of the second-tier candidates overtaking Anderson-Groat and Perkins. Bill Knight's strong showing was impressive, though.

D1, I think DBS is done. She does have name recognition on her side, but if Falls supports Clinkscale (as she says he will) the newcomer will win.

D3, I'm proud of my friend Joe Wilson, and I think his blog made a real difference in his campaign -- not by garnering a massive audience, but by catching the attention of the newspaper and other bloggers and showcasing Joe's direct style. Finishing ahead of Hayworth was a real accomplishment; scaling Matheny's mountain of money is going to be very, very tough.

D5, Wade is formidable, Carmany is closely identified with Mitch. The margin between them was less than 127 votes.

In the mayoral race, Milton Kern is either keeping his powder dry with great savvy and aplomb, or he's just bumping along hoping that his good name and nice smile and some atavistic voter preference for white males (no implication intended as to Kern's own views; he's said he would vote for Yvonne himself if he wasn't running) will save the day; it looks like the latter to me, and I expect Yvonne Johnson to win.

Assuming a Wade victory, and that my other predictions hold, and you've got a council that replaces Tom Phillips with Matheny, adds Rakestraw and re-ups Perkins, and boots DBS for an inevitable improvement. Pressure on Mitch increases, somewhat. But the status quo remains pretty much quo.

UPDATE: More here.

Comments

[Bubba]

Joe Wilson has some grassroots assets that Methany may not have, or be able to utilize.

The next three weeks will be interesting.

[Roch101]

Assuming your predictions are correct, I'm not sure you're exactly right about the quo. Maybe in regards to whether or not Mitch keeps his job, but not necessarily in regard to changes in in the Wray/GPD/Mitch/Council/City Attorney/Secret Public Documents landscape.

Mike Barber's recent motion to release all documentation surrounding the Wary affair fell two votes short of passing and the three that voted for it are highly likely to be returning to council (Barber, Johnson, Anderson-Groat). Can you see at least two of your possible newcommers supporting such a motion? I can.

[Ed Cone]

You may be right, Roch -- I edited out my own question on whether a new mix on the Council might embolden Barber...

[Billy The Blogging Poet]

There are a few more surprises to come from outside of the status quo.

[Kevin Wilson]

Ed, I too am proud of my friend Joe Wilson. Even though we share the last name and he is a friend, he'll be the first to tell you that when I don't agree with him none of that matters. Well, I agree with him this time and I think we all would benefit by Joe Wilson being on our city council.

P.S. - Long time no see!

Kevin Wilson

[tw]

Ugh. There should be a net of term and public service limits, and both Rakestraw and Perkins should be firmly snared in it, unable to re-warm seats that already contain their buttprints. County/City, it's the same group, largely consisting of dysfunctional social retards who like being on TV.

Perkins on the Council is a nonstop conflict of interest. He should recuse himself from every vote as a matter of ethics. Real estate developers have interests that run counter to the city's interests. They want to rape the city and believe that no doesn't really mean no. Couple their profit motives with the power-giving rohypnol of a City Council seat, and there's nothing left for the city to do but relax and enjoy it.

Puke. Groundhog fucking day again.

[Joe Wilson]

So, send me a mountain of money and we'll have it made . If that was all it takes then I wouldn't have fared as well as I did.The people are ready for a change and they will be heard in the general election.

My thanks to Berkley Blanks who called me today to congratulate me and to inform me that he was going to ask his supporters to vote for me.My hat is off to Berkley for the respect he has shown me throughout the primary election.

Thanks to everyone who made this possible by believing in me.

[Bubba]

"Perkins on the Council is a nonstop conflict of interest. He should recuse himself from every vote as a matter of ethics. Real estate developers have interests that run counter to the city's interests. They want to rape the city and believe that no doesn't really mean no. Couple their profit motives with the power-giving rohypnol of a City Council seat, and there's nothing left for the city to do but relax and enjoy it."

Exactly.

Let's make sure the voters understand that well in the next few weeks.

[Jim Saintsing]

"... Wade is formidable...."

And tenacious.

[John G]

I think Clinkscale will be a fresh, supportive and open voice for district one. I sure hope Falls' supporters think so also.

[Beau Dure]

Less than 8 percent? But I've been assured by so many people in the Greensblogosphere that everyone in the city is ready to exact revenge on anyone who has the slightest drop of blood from the character assassination of Mr. Wray!

As fond as I am of this medium, that number should remind folks in cyberspace that their real-world neighbors aren't quite as angry as they are.

Granted, the lack of interest in good government isn't necessarily a good thing. But it's reassuring to know that the image of a dysfunctional Greensboro as painted in the blogs isn't quite accurate.

[Roch101]

Beau, a greater turnout than the previous primary with two candidates who are making city management centerpieces of their campaigns finishing at the top of their respective races. I think the primary results, in fact and countrary to your shakey speculation, mirror the disatisfaction being expressed in a number of forums, even the "real world."

[Bubba]

"Granted, the lack of interest in good government isn't necessarily a good thing. But it's reassuring to know that the image of a dysfunctional Greensboro as painted in the blogs isn't quite accurate."

Don't give up your day job to become a Greensboro political pundit, Beau.....

You've been in the DC market too long. That tends to jade your attitude severely.

[Tony Wilkins]

I have no idea who "Beau Dure" is but I had thought his/her comments to be joking until I read Roch's and Bubba's comments.
"it's reassuring to know that the image of a dysfunctional Greensboro as painted in the blogs isn't quite accurate."
Tell me BD is really kidding and can't be serious with that backwards ass interpretation of Tuesday's primary...or at least let me know that BD is someway associated with the N&R.
(BD can't be all bad, he/she is a Warren Zevon fan...BD, you'll know what I mean when I say "send lawyers, guns, and money, the sh** has hit the fan").

[Beau Dure]

N&R alum, class of '98.

I'm just having a little fun with some of the regulars.

I think the N&R sees a dysfunctional Greensboro, too. I still have this perception that people in town are just too danged nice to be flinging trumped-up political insults at each other, much of it with a nasty racial undercurrent.

I don't mean that the police department is a merry place to work. I just mean that the town might not be coming apart at the seams after all.