Simply put, this is the greatest global stock market boom in history.
What we are witnessing here, in virtually every corner of the globe, is the success and the spread of unbridled free market capitalism...free trade, the free flow of capital, and the robust free exchange of information.
...And it's not over yet.
Larry Kudlow, August 15, 2007: "I want [the Fed] to buy subprime mortgages."
So much for his faith in unbridled free markets.
"The greatest global stock market boom...not over yet." (click chart to enlarge)
Well, at least we can still count on that "robust free exchange of information"...right?
Nouriel Roubini: "This increased financial uncertainty is in part due to the increased opacity and lack of transparency in financial markets."
Surely you aren't surprised that Larry Kudlow is revealed as nothing but a shill. Watch his show for more than 45 seconds and you can watch the quarters drop in the back of his head as the buttons get pushed.
Posted by: John Burns | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:29 AM
"Surely you aren't surprised that Larry Kudlow is revealed as nothing but a shill. Watch his show for more than 45 seconds and you can watch the quarters drop in the back of his head as the buttons get pushed."
Wrong person.
That describes a Paul Krugman appearance, not Kudlow.
Posted by: Bubba | Aug 16, 2007 at 09:40 PM
"This increased financial uncertainty is in part due to the increased opacity and lack of transparency in financial markets."
No, it's generally being a matter of the shorts covering.
Once we work through that, and the excessive hand wringing, the correction will be over.
Posted by: Bubba | Aug 16, 2007 at 09:46 PM
Correction:
The first sentence of my last post should read "No, it's generally the result of shorts jumping in to the market."
A fair amount of the decline can be attributed to shorts jumping into the market when they smelled blood.
When they cover, the market to go up.
This is exactly what happened in the final hour of trading today.
Again, once we work through that, and the excessive hand wringing, the correction will be over.
Posted by: Bubba | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:00 PM
Yeah, Kudlow looks like a genius on this one, not a shill, and Krugman's warnings about a housing bubble were just wrong.
This is about a lot more than shorts jumping into the market.
Even Kudlow understands that much. Finally.
Kudlow on June 26: "Now it's subprime coming back. Is there going to be a contagion meltdown? I don't believe that for a minute."
Kudlow today: "[T]he sub-prime mortgage infection spreads throughout the U.S. and the global financial system."
Posted by: Ed Cone | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:06 PM
OMG, Bubba thinks the correction's over. I'm getting liquid.
Posted by: Fec Stench | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:26 PM
"Kudlow today: '[T]he sub-prime mortgage infection spreads throughout the U.S. and the global financial system.'"
And magically, Kudlow is somehow right, after being so wrong for so long.
Yeah, that's the ticket, Ed.
Fact: Less than 15 % of mortgages in this country are considered sub-prime
Fact: Foreclosure rates are up 1/10 of 1 percent this year, from .5 to .6
Fact: Foreclosure losses are expected to be no more than 35 billion, which would account for a stock market decline of approximately .2 percent.
Given all that, how else would you account for the current correction, assuming you don't factor in the hysteria, the hand-wringing, the hysteria, and the "I told you so" smirking I'm finding here?
Posted by: Bubba | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:36 PM
Anyone who is foolish enough to THINK they know what the market will do just proves they know nothing at all. I personally am taking advantage of the drop to buy up some long-awaited stock.
Posted by: Ged | Aug 16, 2007 at 10:44 PM
The whole point about contagion is that the problems have spread beyond the subprime market -- and even there, the damage encompasses more than mortgage lenders and homeowners. Ask Bear Stearns or BNP Paribas.
Countrywide, the largest mortgage lender, isn't even a huge player in the subprime market, yet it is deathly ill. Housing starts are in the toilet. Now the problems have reached commercial paper.
It's not magic that Kudlow was right today. Sure, he was wrong as hell in June, when he said problems wouldn't spread beyond subprime, and he was wrong as hell in July, when he crowed about Dow 14K without even hinting of problems ahead.
Now he's been whacked upside the head by facts too overwhelming for even him to ignore.
I don't even know what you are trying to argue here, Bubba. I'd be happier if Krugman had been wrong and Kudlow had been right. I hope we're through the worst of it. But it's pretty nasty out there, and I don't see the point of pretending otherwise, and I believe that big-name prognosticators should be held to account.
Posted by: Ed Cone | Aug 16, 2007 at 11:07 PM
"I don't even know what you are trying to argue here, Bubba."
Come better prepared to discuss the subject next time then.
Stop getting your information from the traditional media and those others who promote hysteria.
Watch and learn.
Posted by: Bubba | Aug 17, 2007 at 09:18 AM
Oh yeah - the classic dodge. "I'm right but the MSM won't tell my story..."
Posted by: John Burns | Aug 17, 2007 at 11:18 AM
The MSM. The Fed. Bear Stearns and BNP Paribas. Why do they lie to us?
Posted by: Ed Cone | Aug 17, 2007 at 11:32 AM
ladies and germs: with today's rally, the put/call ratio achieved the exuberant levels which signals that the herd is expressing some certainty that a bottom is in place and the best is yet to come. These herd members are enjoyed equally by crocs, lions, hyenas and carion eaters. 2009 may mark the end of this usually reliable indicator, however. But I doubt it.
Posted by: Beelzebubba | Jan 02, 2009 at 08:40 PM
I'm not so sure. I'm hearing we have a new phase in markets - a volatility phase.
Course that's an opinion from pseudonymous sources and I'm just a Joe On Mainstreet.
Posted by: RBM | Jan 03, 2009 at 10:56 AM