The not-so-solid South?

"A new Elon University Poll shows support for President George W. Bush stands at 43 percent in five Southeastern states, while 52 percent of citizens disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Bush is doing."

More: "Fifty-seven percent of respondents disapprove or strongly disapprove of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, while 39 percent approve or strongly approve. On the economy, Bush’s approval rating stands at 40 percent, while 54 percent disapprove or strongly disapprove."

Implications for the upcoming Congressional elections? "Forty-two percent of respondents supported Democrats in the 2004 presidential election, while 46 percent supported Republicans. When asked which party they will support in the next congressional election, 33 percent said they will support Democrats and 28 percent said they will support Republicans. Twenty-nine percent said they did not know."

Here's the release from Elon.

Comments

[Patrick Eakes]

This reminds me of some of the polling and trending I recall in early 2004.

It seemed then that Dems (as a whole) could not get their act together to take advantage of that dissatisfaction. I don't particularly sense they are ready this time either.

Dems are standing up on some important issues, Katrina analysis, UAE and ports, etc., but it all feels reactive and validated only when Reps get involved, too. Granted, the Reps are willing to be critical of Bush because of the same polling data.

What I am not hearing is a clear message about what Dems stand for and how that is a better and different package than what is being offered currently. Much of the alleged contract with America was bs, but it gave people something to latch on to when they felt shaky about Clinton.

[wellbasically]

The difference will be first in the local elections, governors, where the Dems could get nine pickups, and state legislatures. 2004 was the first time in 10 years that the Dems picked up state legislators. The abortion law of South Dakota will lean toward Dems, and then you get to do redistricting, which is how you take control of Congress anyway.

[Glenn Melancon]

If you want a clear fighting message, look beyond the beltway. Here in Texas we have a great crop of grassroots candidates, who believe the government belongs to the people, not corporations.

When elected I will fight for
*well-paying American Jobs,
*universal healthcare
*affordable energy, and, a
*winning foreign policy

Please stop saying Democrats, do not have a message. We do. We fight for the working families of America. If Americans want to end the age of corporate corruption, then vote for change. Vote for a new Direction. Vote for hope. Vote Democratic.

Other Citizen Canidates include:
*Dan Dodd: www.dandodd.us
*Charlie Thompson: http://www.charliethompson.org/
*Mary Beth Harrell: http://www.marybethharrellforcongress.com/html/
*Robert Ricketts: http://www.robertricketts.com/
*Dave Harris: http://www.followmetodc.com/

[Bill Johnson]

To a certain extent, I agree with Patrick, the Dems don't have a message--THAT Get's out in the Mainstream Media (or corporate/Republican controlled media). There are two more differences that I've noticed, we have the democrats, who are like those Glenn posted, and then the Democrats, who are corporate controlled, such as Joe Lieberman and others. The difference is all the Republicans are corporate controlled and have a consistent mantra. Democrats have conflicting policies based on who they truly represent. This is then viewed as not having a consistent message or no message at all. Both types of dem/Democrats should be able to agree on a list of items to hammer during and after the election.

[Gate]

Jess Helms was supposed to lose every time as well, but people said one thing when asked and voted another way in the booth. Conservatism is strongest where it counts - in the voting booth, not the polls.

[Patrick Eakes]

Glenn, I believe the message you wrote is representative of Democrats...and fails to be the type of message that will move votes over to Democratic candidates.

"Vote for a new Direction. Vote for hope. Vote Democratic." is not going to get it done.

[Gilman]

"It seemed then that Dems (as a whole) could not get their act together to take advantage of that dissatisfaction. I don't particularly sense they are ready this time either."

Has it ever occurred to you that the Dems really do "have their act together" and the country is seeing what it actually is? That the believers in the Democrats are really the fools? Absent some lib/left/labor groundswell they need to contain and redirect, which has been their historical role, the Democrats have always been the tail of the Republicans (Bush-lite, so to speak). The past several years they've even been trying to out-Bush Bush on several issues, such as domestic anti-terror and beligerancy toward No. Korea and Iran and such. Not surprising that the vast majority of Dems voted to make the Patriot Act permanent or that they voted for/didn't stop Bush's "the South will rise again" judicial nominees Roberts and Alito.

[Bubba]

"Has it ever occurred to you that the Dems really do "have their act together" and the country is seeing what it actually is?"

Exactly.

"The past several years they've even been trying to out-Bush Bush on several issues, such as domestic anti-terror and beligerancy toward No. Korea and Iran and such. Not surprising that the vast majority of Dems voted to make the Patriot Act permanent or that they voted for/didn't stop Bush's "the South will rise again" judicial nominees Roberts and Alito."

And their Lunatic Fringe is threatening to jihadisize the party. That prospect does not bode well for them in upcoming elections.

[Mary Alice Richert]

Anytime any Bushies point up how much it will cost to protect the ports, give our soldiers protective gear, improve the schools, roads, bridges, feed the poor, get children out of poverty, help the most vulnerable, guarantee all Americans at least minimal health care, give our wounded veternas the best care known to man, please don't neglect to mention that Bush's ill-conceived and ill-executed venture in Iraq is costing over $1,000,000,000, yes, one billion dollars, a week. And also remind us that America has sustained 2,500 American military deaths and thousands of wounded casualties and counting.

[Glenn Melancon]

Hi Gate,

We must be talking to different voters. My biggest hurdle is convincing voters that there will be a change. Voters are demanding it, but the Democratic party in Washington is not talking about it. Once my "neighbors" understand that I am not bought and paid for by international corporations, both Republicans and Democrats say the will support me. Working families want someone to fight for them.

When I tell them that corporations are writing bad laws that kick them in the gut, voters understand. They have been on the receiving end of a bad drug bill, a bad energy bill and a bad college aid bill. These issues matter to them.

Now’s the time for change. Now’s the time for a new direction. Staying the course will be a disaster for American families. Vote for change. Vote democratic for a change.

[Cameron Barrett]

Attention GOP: "All your base are belong to us."

[Gate]

Good luck with all that, Glenn. What voters says is important to them in polls changes in the voting booth.